Agenda

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disruptor
09:30 - 10:30
Berlin

Opening ceremony

Hybrid

Facilitators

  • Alessandra Gilotta, Anticipation Hub
  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
10:30 - 11:20
Berlin
Plenary

Working outside of our comfort zones: how Pablo Suarez inspired anticipatory action

Hybrid
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Imagine two people seated in a car during a visit to Latin America, thinking up a future where funds could be released based on a forecast hazard to implement life-saving actions before the impacts were felt... One of those people was Pablo Suarez and this idea gave birth to forecast-based financing which, over 10 years, grew to become anticipatory action. Pablo - whose passion, humour and candour created a space where science, policy and practice merged to advance anticipatory action - passed away on 16 July 2024, and in this session, we will pay tribute to him, exploring the adventurous and out-of-the-box approaches that he embodied towards effective collaboration as a vehicle for mainstreaming and scaling up anticipatory action. In a Pablo-like style, we will have frank conversations about what is required for effective collaboration and how to build trust to make magic happen!

Speakers

  • Maarten van Aalst, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

Facilitators

  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
11:20 - 11:30
Berlin

Day 1 session pitches

Hybrid

Facilitators

  • Alessandra Gilotta, Anticipation Hub
  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
12:00 - 13:00
Berlin

Three-minute theses: research for anticipatory action's wicked problems

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
None
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Want to learn about the cutting-edge research and innovation in anticipatory action for complex crises, and help shape its direction? What better place than a room full of the PhD researchers from the anticipatory action community? (There are more of them than you might think!) Join us for a series of 3-minute, Ted-talk style presentations by researchers working on anticipatory action across disciplines from meteorology via anthropology to health sciences, and everywhere in between. Be entertained by their passion, the questions with which they are grappling, and the answers they are providing to help us tackle 'wicked' problems. And you'll hear about existential crises, record coffee consumption and midnight brainwaves that might change the world! This is your opportunity to keep abreast of the latest science, gain new ideas and tools, and help shape the future of anticipatory action. Guaranteed laughs, interesting ideas and thought-provoking discussions (and snacks)!

Speakers

  • Tilly Alcayna, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
  • Susan Njambi-Szlapka, University of Ediburgh and Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action
  • Douglas Mulangwa, University of Reading
  • Matias Menalled, Uppsala University
  • Amira Nasser Mostafa, Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA)
  • Leah Poole-Selters, Tufts University
  • Emmah Mwangi, Sussex University

Facilitators

  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
  • Dorothy Heinrich, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Institutionalizing anticipatory action: stakeholder collaboration for effective response

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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This session will focus on the institutionalization of anticipatory action and the collaboration among various stakeholders to strengthen humanitarian responses in Mali. It will explore how to integrate anticipatory action into national disaster-risk-management frameworks and how local, national and international stakeholders can work together to develop and implement anticipatory action protocols. The session will highlight case studies and examples of successful collaboration, emphasizing the importance of including local actors and disaster-prone beneficiaries in the decision-making process.

Progress towards the implementation of anticipatory action in the eastern Africa region

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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The prolonged drought from 2020 to 2023, El Niño-induced flooding in 2023/2024 and other vulnerabilities have increased the need for humanitarian aid in eastern Africa. Anticipatory actions can reduce risks through early interventions based on forecasts. In 2023, anticipatory action assisted 3.6 million people in the region across sectors. This progress offers a chance to share learning and evidence to inform practice and policy, supporting the expansion of anticipatory action approaches. IGAD is leading efforts to accelerate anticipatory action in the region, working with national governments through a regional roadmap and inter-agency group. This session will share the key lessons and challenges of scaling up anticipatory action in eastern Africa, including insights from the 1st Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform, highlight regional issues and contribute to building resilient, proactive communities capable of anticipating and mitigating the impacts of hazards.

Speakers

  • Andy Wheatley, GRC/ICRC
  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
  • Emmah Mwangi, Sussex University

Facilitators

  • George Otieno, Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
  • Mary Anne Zeilstra, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)

Orbiting the 'Social Protection Solar System' for anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Social protection is a portfolio of programmes and policies developed to minimize poverty and vulnerability, and help individuals cope with life-cycle risks. There is growing evidence that social protection has a role as a risk-management tool to prepare for, anticipate and respond to the impacts of climate- and weather-related hazards. Mainstreaming anticipatory action into national social-protection systems can enhance its timeliness, predictability and cost-efficiency, and support its institutionalization. Integration can occur across the various blocks of a social-protection system: policy level, programme-design level and programme implementation. This session will cover the theory and share examples from Bangladesh, Fiji and Mozambique of linking social protection and anticipatory action, as outlined in FAO’s paper 'Social Protection and Anticipatory Action to Protect Agricultural Livelihoods' and WFP’s guidance on 'Integrating Anticipatory Action and Social Protection'.

Speakers

  • Urbe Secades, World Food Programme
  • Sayanti Sengupta, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
  • Federico Spano , Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Facilitators

  • Urbe Secades, World Food Programme
  • Siphokazi Moloinyane, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
  • Sayanti Sengupta, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
  • Ioannis Kaffes, OCHA
  • Federico Spano , Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Early Warnings for All: tracking progress and unveiling government actions

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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The Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative is a global effort to ensure that, by the end of 2027, everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather, water or climate events through life-saving early warning systems that translate into early and anticipatory action. The initiative is structured across four pillars: (1) risk knowledge; (2) observations and forecasting; (3) dissemination; and (4) communication and preparedness to respond to warnings, with the pillar leads being UNDRR, WMO, ITU and IFRC, respectively. Following last year’s successful event on EW4All, which explored strategies and synergies for implementing effective systems for early warnings and early/anticipatory actions, at this year’s Global Dialogue Platform the EW4All session organizers will provide an update on the initiative's progress and highlight the relevance, leadership and uptake of this initiative by governments.

Speakers

  • Stephanie Julmy, IFRC
  • Mr. Titus Muhofah, Office of the Prime Minister
  • Mr. Andrianianja Raonivelo, Bureau National de Gestion des Risques et des Catastrophes (BNGRC)

Facilitators

  • Gana Gantulga, IFRC

How to become an imagin-eer: harnessing imagination to anticipate complex crises

Interactive workshop
In person only
Introduction
None
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Research on the 2021 floods in Germany found that an inability to imagine the scale of flooding hampered preparations and led to devastating impacts. In this session we will be looking at the role of imagination in helping us to anticipate complex crises. We will explore both scientific and creative methods to help us imagine unknown futures, equipping participants with skills and knowledge to apply in their own work.

Speakers

  • Erin Coughlan de Perez, Tufts University and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
  • Harriet Aber, MakSPH
  • Liz Stephens, RCCC / UoR
  • Dorothy Heinrich, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Facilitators

  • Dorothy Heinrich, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
  • Liz Stephens, RCCC / UoR
14:30 - 15:30
Berlin

Trusting information in FCASs: how insecurity and grievance can shape anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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Fragile and conflict-affected settings (FCASs) present unique challenges for humanitarian and development efforts, due to heightened vulnerabilities, distrust and limited access to resources and information. These settings are marked by compounding crises, such as conflict, displacement and climate-related disasters, which exacerbate food insecurity, land degradation and water scarcity. This workshop, centred on real talk and case studies, aims to uncover the layers and delve into the real-life experiences of anticipatory action in FCASs. By spotlighting experiences from the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (Jordan and Pakistan cases), from the ICRC (Somalia), and the the DARAJA Emergency Weather Information and Early Warning Service for Sudan, presented by the Sudan Urban Development Think Tank and Resurgence, participants will gain a deeper understanding of the complexities involved and the lessons learned along the way.

Speakers

  • Andy Wheatley, GRC/ICRC
  • Mark Harvey, Resurgence

Facilitators

  • Nora Hanke-Louw, International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
  • Juliane Schillinger, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)

Anticipatory action: explorations of who is left behind and how to close the gap

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Introduction
Africa
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Anticipatory actions can prevent losses and mortality when extreme events occur, but their effectiveness is limited when people can’t benefit from them in a timely and inclusive way. This happens when systems do not provide reliable forecasts; warnings do not reach the intended recipients; elite capture isn’t considered; messages are not understood; action plans do not integrate local and indigenous knowledge; knowledge of a coming hazard is not supported by actions to enhance the agency of those at risk; or the root causes of people’s behaviour in risk situations are not understood. We will explore who is left behind by current approaches, and discuss solutions. We will draw on cross-cutting observations from applied research projects that are part of the Climate Adaptation and Resilience (CLARE) initiative; these examine anticipatory action in real situations, in fragile and conflict-affected states and regions, for migratory populations, and in the presence of compounding risks.

Speakers

  • Luis Joao Artur, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (UEM)
  • Pedram Rowhani, University of Sussex
  • Iris Seidemann, University of Hamburg
  • Salako Francis Innocent, IFRC
  • Nelson Amos Mutanda, National Drought Management Authority
  • Emmah Mwangi, Sussex University

Facilitators

  • Evelyn Noy, International Development Research Centre
  • Samantha Sansone, University of Hamburg
  • Liz Stephens, RCCC / UoR
  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)

Risk-informed humanitarian programme cycle: planning for anticipatory action

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
Other
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With the notable exception of conflict, many of the top risks identified in Humanitarian Needs Overviews – droughts, floods, storms and cholera – are highly predictable, and the feasibility of anticipatory action for these risks – as one of the risk-impact-mitigation modalities – has been ascertained. Through examples, this session will discuss how improved risk analysis and monitoring in different contexts has supported risk-informed planning, enabling a strategic focus and operational coordination of both response-readiness and anticipatory action efforts ahead of priority risks. The focus will be on emerging practice across a few contexts, including Nigeria and Somalia, and share lessons and challenges to inform cluster-level and inter-cluster options that field practitioners can consider.

Speakers

  • Begna Edo, United nations children's fund
  • Christoph Baade, UN World Food Programme (WFP)
  • Dianah Nelsen, Education Cannot Wait (ECW)
  • Ehsan ullah, UNCIEF
  • Humaira Naseer , Save The Children (SCI)
  • Thorodd Ommundsen , UNICEF
  • Yakoubou Mounkara Oumarou , UNOCHA

Facilitators

  • Billie G. Alemayehu , United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA)

Regional and subregional bodies to scale up and mainstream anticipatory action in DRM

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
Latin America and Caribbean
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This session, hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Food Programme and the German Red Cross, explores the critical role of regional and subregional bodies in Latin America and the Caribbean in scaling up, institutionalizing and mainstreaming anticipatory action in disaster risk management (DRM), at both the country and regional levels. It will delve into the opportunities and challenges faced and share valuable lessons learned from experiences in Central America, particularly through the work of the Coordination Center for the Prevention of Disasters in Central America and the Dominican Republic (CEPREDENAC).

Speakers

  • Gayle Drakes, Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA)
  • Adherbal de la Rosa, CEPREDENAC
  • Silvia Helden , Andean Community

Facilitators

  • Urbe Secades, World Food Programme
  • Angela Blanco, FAO
  • Julian Allan Watkinson, FAO
  • Siphokazi Moloinyane, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
  • Raquel Peña , FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION

From first mile to last: increasing access to financing for early warnings and anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Early warning systems are a central component and enabler of anticipatory action, designed to predict and provide timely information allowing for early interventions to minimize damage and the loss of life. Anticipatory action based on early warnings can reduce the impacts of disasters but for this to work, financing must be available immediately after an early warning or trigger for anticipatory action. Despite the overall increase of funding for anticipatory action among international humanitarian financing mechanisms, funding remains scarce and is not easily accessible for national governments and local actors. The Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative is currently conceptualizing a new financing window for small grants targeting this specific gap in the 'early warning early action' value chain and this session will bring relevant actors to gather insights and inputs that will directly shape this new financing mechanism.

Speakers

  • Vasiti Soko, National Disaster Management Office
  • Gaptia Lawan Katiellou, Météorologie Nationale Niger
  • Giora Gershtein, GeoSphere Austria
  • Arlene Laing, Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO)
  • ZENG Qin, China Meteorological Administration
  • Shirin Merola, World Food Programme (WFP)
  • Vladislav Kavaleuski, Global Disaster Preparedness Center (GDPC)
  • Khadar Sh Mohamed Nur , Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SODMA) Leady DRM Somalia Government Agency

Facilitators

  • Pedro Basabe, CREWS Secretariat
  • Yi Wang, Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS)

Wild card session 1: sitting ducks

Interactive workshop
In person only
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Come and playtest an exciting new game developed by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre which aims to enhance discussions about preparedness for unseen risks.
16:00 - 17:00
Berlin
Plenary

Ignites: what's new in anticipatory action?

Hybrid
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This series of Ignite talks will present some of the latest developments from the anticipatory action community.

Facilitators

  • Stefanie Lux, German Red Cross (GRC)
17:00 - 17:30
Berlin
Plenary

Keynote talk by Hugo Slim

Hybrid
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The first keynote talk will be given by Hugo Slim, an expert in international relations who specializes in the ethics of war and humanitarian aid. His new book, 'Humanitarianism 2.0: New Ethics for the Climate Emergency', will be published in 2025 and he will share some of the insights from this during his talk.

Speakers

  • Hugo Slim, University of Oxford
17:30 - 17:45
Berlin

Closing of day 1

Hybrid
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Join us as we wrap up the opening day.

Facilitators

  • Alessandra Gilotta, Anticipation Hub
  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
17:45 - 20:30
Berlin

Reception

In person only
09:00 - 09:10
Berlin

Opening of day 2

Hybrid
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Join us as we open the second day.

Facilitators

  • Gana Gantulga, IFRC
  • Lore Purroy, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME
09:10 - 09:15
Berlin

Day 2 session pitches

Hybrid

Facilitators

  • Gana Gantulga, IFRC
  • Lore Purroy, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME
09:15 - 10:00
Berlin
Plenary

What does mainstreaming and institutionalizing anticipatory action mean – and how do we get there?

Hybrid
Intermediate
Other
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In this plenary session, we will ask: • What does it mean to institutionalize anticipatory action? • What would success look like and how do we get there? • What are the prerequisites for governments to adopt anticipatory action? • How can non-state actors support government ownership of, and leadership on, anticipatory action?

Speakers

  • Billie G. Alemayehu,
  • Kariyawasam Pelaketiya Gamage Ganga Kumari, Sri Lanka Red Cross Society (SLRCS)

Facilitators

  • Kim Pham, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)
  • Gana Gantulga, IFRC
10:30 - 11:30
Berlin

Mainstreaming evidence-generation: arriving at common indicators and quality standards for MEAL

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
None
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There is considerable interest across the anticipatory action community in making evidence-generation more reliable and comparable across contexts. Therefore, the Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability and Learning (MEAL) Practitioners Group has launched a consultative process to source suggestions for a common menu of core indicators – to allow organizations to measure the effectiveness of anticipatory action interventions – and to propose a basic set of quality standards for evidence-generation in anticipatory action. In this session, the MEAL Practitioners Group will share and seek feedback and inputs on this proposed menu of core indicators and quality standards.

Speakers

  • Nichola Bodanac, FAO
  • Mrs Mamonaheng Monoto, Disaster Management authority

Facilitators

  • Urbe Secades, World Food Programme
  • Clemens Gros, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)

Do anticipatory cash transfers make sense? How much? And when?

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Introduction
Asia Pacific
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Cash and anticipatory action are often paired together and make a handsome couple. But we need to ask deeper questions: is it what people want? How much? When before the disaster? Are there markets in place? Would in-kind support be better? With all these questions, it is clear we have a lot to learn about anticipatory cash transfers. In this session, we will provide a snapshot of the lessons learned across eight countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and discuss where we can take this forward, highlighting the evidence needed to convince governments and international partners that cash payouts are a good idea. It will draw on what has been learned to date (as a proof of concept), with recommendations on: formulating anticipatory cash transfers alongside in-kind support; the rationale for cash 'plus'; and framing this from the perspective of at-risk households and so moving away from sector-specific or mandate-based designs.

Demystifying compounding and cascading hazards: new approaches to mitigate food insecurity

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Understanding and addressing compounding and cascading hazards is essential for improving food security. This session will explore challenges and solutions for addressing complex risks in early and anticipatory action. Starting with an overview of the current state of compounding hazards and risk analysis in anticipatory action, the facilitators will discuss advancements, identify gaps and outline future directions. Next, participants will engage in an interactive brainstorm to identify opportunities, challenges and solutions related to integrating complex risks into anticipatory action frameworks, with the aim of uncovering practical insights and innovative solutions. The session will conclude by showcasing successful examples that address these challenges, highlighting the effective strategies and tools, and the crucial role of local actors. Join us to discover new approaches for mitigating food insecurity through anticipatory action!

Speakers

  • Salawu Oluwatobi Richard, Christian Rural and Urban Development Association of Nigeria (CRUDAN)
  • David Backer, University of Maryland
  • Richard King, Chatham House
  • Larissa de Winter, Insecurity Insight
  • Tamanna Rahman, Practical Action

Facilitators

  • Muhammad Fawwad, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)
  • Beth Simons, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)
  • Timothy Bishop, Insecurity Insight
  • Bhargabi Bharadwaj, Chatham House (CH)
  • Anum Farhan, Chatham House
  • Debora Gonzalez , Aktion gegen den Hunger (ACF)

Wild card session 2: train of ambition

Interactive workshop
In person only
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We all have ambitions for what a perfect world would look like – but what would an ideal 'disaster prepared' world look like? Come and jointly design our 'train of ambition' for anticipatory action in complex contexts, and discuss how we can mainstream this into our disaster-risk-management systems. Help us co-create our 'perfect' world: what needs to be done to get there, and which contribution will each of us make towards attaining this?
10:30 - 13:00
Berlin

Finance fuels us on? The present and future of pre-arranged financing for anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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This session focuses on: (1) how financing for anticipatory action could go further: (2) how climate and disaster-risk financing and insurance (CDRFI) instruments can help protect more lives ahead of predictable crises: and (3) how to build accountability to those who need anticipatory action the most. First, diverse case studies will highlight good practices, opportunities and challenges in terms of improving access, coordination, use and the longer-term provision of pre-arranged funding for anticipatory action. Second, the potential for CDRFI instruments to support this will be debated. Participants will scrutinize instruments and assess the feasibility, scale, type of investors (public and private), target groups, operational risks and alignment with humanitarian principles. Lastly, participants will share ideas for scaling up anticipatory action through increased financing, covering protection gaps, and strengthening its impacts for those who need it most.

Speakers

  • Sam Brett, FCDO
  • Shirin Merola, World Food Programme (WFP)
  • Your Excellency Seth Vannareth, Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, Cambodia
  • ZENG Qin, China Meteorological Administration
  • Vasiti Soko, National Disaster Management Office
  • Vladislav Kavaleuski, Global Disaster Preparedness Center (GDPC)
  • Arlene Laing, Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO)
  • Giora Gershtein, GeoSphere Austria

Dialogue to action: a toolkit to integrate protection, gender and inclusion in anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Anticipatory action offers significant potential to mitigate the vulnerabilities of at-risk groups in crisis situations. Despite growing recognition of the need to integrate protection, gender and inclusion (PGI) into anticipatory action, implementation remains inconsistent and often lacks capacity, resources and monitoring mechanisms. This workshop will launch the recently developed 'PGI in AA' toolkit, which synthesizes three years of dialogue and collaboration and provides practical guidance to ensure inclusive and protective practices. It is the result of joint efforts and collaboration by several members of the PGI in AA working group, who will facilitate. The workshop will also emphasize the need for people-centred approaches and collaboration and learning among local, national and international actors. Participants will engage in interactive discussions and practical exercises about how to apply PGI principles effectively in various contexts.

Facilitators

  • Nagore Moran, Plan International UK
  • Chiara Ambrosino, Plan International UK (PIUK)
  • LOUISE BONNET, HUMANITY & INCLUSION
  • Kirstin Lange, UNICEF
  • Chris Ball , Bounce Back Resilience
  • Valentina Evangelisti , Humanity and Inclusion
12:00 - 13:00
Berlin

Integrating conflict and security triggers into anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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Anticipatory action has largely been developed to prevent or mitigate the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards during peace times, but there is a need to explore the value of anticipatory action in conflict settings. In many countries (e.g., Mali and Myanmar), conflict and security triggers, in addition to climate and environmental hazards, are often the root cause of fragility. Therefore, the development of a compound risk index that is subjective and accompanied by impact-based, sense-making narrative is key. World Vision came up with a programme approach known as the Fragile Contexts Programme Approach, which brings key stakeholders together to produce a snapshot of the current situation. The Netherlands Red Cross’s data and digital team, 510, developed a tool that quantifies the risk from climate to infrastructure project designs in conflict settings and proposes adaptation measures. Through these innovative tools, project implementation can adapt quickly and be risk informed.

Speakers

  • Corina Markodimitraki, 510
  • Marie-Theres Wolhfahrt, World Vision (WV)

Facilitators

  • Mike Weickert, World Vision

More than a box-ticking exercise: how local actors change the mainstream through anticipatory action

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Mainstreaming anticipatory action in the humanitarian programme cycle is a huge opportunity to change how we collectively manage disaster risk in many ways, including beyond the benefits typically highlighted. Too often, actors at the forefront of managing disaster risks are brought too late or solely on the question of how to make the programme more ‘locally led’. We’d like to challenge this notion. Hear from an exclusively local and national NGO practitioner panel about these opportunities and benefits, and what is needed to build anticipatory disaster-risk-financing systems that prioritize community and local engagement. Critically reflect through questions and discussions on what is needed to mainstream these approaches across actors, achieve better practices, multiply the impact of a risk-informed anticipatory approach, and further develop ideas on how to design more locally led, effective and coordinated humanitarian action through the avenue of anticipatory action.

Speakers

  • Mohamed Yarrow, Centre for Peace and Democracy (CPD)
  • Tasnima Mukit, Center for Natural Resource Studies (CNRS)
  • Jonalyn Adduru , Green Meadow Development Foundation, Incorporated (GMDFI)

Facilitators

  • Anna Farina, Start Network
  • Edward Parkinson, Start Network

Coordinated anticipatory action frameworks: the key to mainstreaming?

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Mainstreaming anticipatory action within the humanitarian sector and government planning will require going beyond individual agencies looking at their own projects; it will require shared, coordinated action to mainstream this approach into collective planning. Shared frameworks are one way to do this. This session will highlight the importance of coordination in anticipatory action, drawing on lessons from the development and use of shared, interagency frameworks. It will highlight gaps and set an agenda for improved interagency coordination. A panel will highlight good practices and gaps, followed by a discussion with the audience. Key questions will include: - What are the advantages of coordinating anticipatory action through shared frameworks? - What good-practice examples exist? - How best can governments and other actors, including local actors, be included in shared frameworks? - How can shared frameworks be enhanced and implemented in more countries?

Wild card session 3

Interactive workshop
In person only
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To be confirmed.
14:30 - 15:30
Berlin

Hopping to conclusions: outpacing locusts with anticipatory action

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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Locust swarms devastating entire landscapes have affected human societies since the beginnings of agriculture and locust plagues regularly threaten to cause food shortages for many millions of people. In this session, we want to showcase current examples from Madagascar and Somalia and discuss some of the still-open questions with you: • How is anticipatory action for locusts different from weather-related anticipatory action? • When is the right timing for anticipatory action? • What can trigger anticipatory action and what are most effective actions at the different points in time?

Speakers

  • Anne Schauss, Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology

Facilitators

  • Karen Dall, German Red Cross

Environment-smart anticipatory action: gaps, practices and opportunities

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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The humanitarian sector plays a pivotal role in anticipatory action, aiming to reduce the impacts of disasters and crises before they occur. With the Climate and Environment Charter calling on organizations to maximize environmental sustainability and rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in programmes, there’s growing expertise on the environmental impacts of humanitarian response. The negative environmental impacts of anticipatory action need to be further explored to make sure interventions 'do no harm' and build long-term resilience via eco-friendly practices and nature-based solutions. This session will raise awareness of the importance of environment-smart anticipatory action and explore how programmes can better incorporate and minimize environmental impacts, drawing on experiences from emergency response programmes. Cash and voucher assistance, one of the most widely adopted instruments, will be discussed as one of the solutions for environment-smart anticipatory action.

Speakers

  • Celine Sinitzky Billard, CALP Network
  • Sindhy B. Obias, Assistance and Cooperation for Community Resilience and Development (ACCORD)

Facilitators

  • Thuy-Binh Nguyen, CARE - CARE Climate Justice Centre
  • Nishanie Jayamaha, International Council of Voluntary Agencies (ICVA)

How to become an imagin-eer: harnessing the role of imagination to anticipate complex crises

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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Research on the 2021 floods in Germany found that an inability to imagine the scale of flooding hampered preparations and led to devastating impacts. In this session, we will look at the role of imagination in helping us to anticipate complex crises. We will explore both scientific and creative methods to help us imagine unknown futures, equipping participants with skills and knowledge to apply in their own work. In the second part of the session, we will turn our imaginations to South Sudan, which in 2024 has once again been threatened with record floods. Participants will engage with practitioners who are tasked with strengthening anticipatory action in a country faced with mass population displacement due to climate change. With voice notes from the ground, knowledge of the 1960s floods from community elders and climate storylines of future flooding, how can we apply our new-found skills to imagine the future of anticipatory action in a country where climate and conflict collide?

Speakers

  • Christopher Garimoi Orach, Makerere University, School of Public Health
  • Léo Lysandre Tremblay, Médecins sans Frontières

Facilitators

  • Liz Stephens, RCCC / UoR
  • Dorothy Heinrich, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

Grand Bargain caucus results: enhancing anticipatory action to meet humanitarian challenges

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Advanced
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In June 2023, Grand Bargain signatories agreed to prioritize scaling up anticipatory action and identify barriers that could be addressed within its 3.0 framework, as a contribution to reducing humanitarian needs. As the only platform that brings together donors, UN organizations, the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, and international and local/national NGOs, the Grand Bargain is uniquely positioned to drive the necessary political changes required to address these challenges. In February 2023, the Grand Bargain caucus to scale up anticipatory action was launched. It was created to secure commitments around three key themes: (1) increased financing for coordinated anticipatory action: (2) developing key parameters and a joint methodology for tracking funding, including build funding and pre-arranged and released fuel funding: and (3) recommendations to improve coordination. It also agreed a working definition of anticipatory action. This session will present the results to date.

Mainstreaming anticipatory action through strengthening local voices

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
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This session focuses on the role of local actors in mainstreaming anticipatory action. Bringing together perspectives from academia and practice, it is hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Farm Community Trust Zimbabwe (FCTZ), Welthungerhilfe (WHH), the People's Disaster Risk Reduction Network Philippines and Ruhr-University Bochum. FAO will present insights from its Community Engagement in Anticipatory Action project, sharing results from a pilot in Guatemala. FCTZ and WHH will illustrate the People First Impact Method (P-FIM), which has fostered community-driven early action protocols in Zimbabwe. And a case study from the Philippines will highlight good practices for local leadership in trigger development. Participants will learn about innovative tools and methodologies that enhance the inclusivity and effectiveness of anticipatory action, and how integrating local voices facilitates the adoption and sustainability of anticipatory action.

Speakers

  • Vincent Taurai Chiunya, WHH
  • Barnabas John Muhoma, Farm Community Trust of Zimbabwe
  • ESTEBAN (bong) MASAGCA, People's Disaster Risk Reduction Network (PDRRN) Inc.
  • Maria Lopez Gordillo, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Facilitators

  • Jonas Bervoets, Food and Agriculture Organization
  • Sören Schneider , Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) of Ruhr-University Bochum

Wild card session 4

Interactive workshop
In person only
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To be confirmed.
16:00 - 17:00
Berlin
Plenary

Mainstreaming anticipatory action: integration into government and regional structures

Hybrid
Intermediate
None
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Following the discussions on what mainstreaming, institutionalization and government-led anticipatory action mean and look like, this plenary will dive into how anticipatory action is being woven into the fabric of national and regional disaster-risk-management systems by highlighting experiences from Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, and southern and eastern Africa. Representatives from various regional bodies and national governments will unpack real-world strategies that are helping anticipatory action to take root, and explore the hurdles faced along the way. It will also look at how governments can be better supported to fully embed anticipatory action into disaster laws, policies and action plans. Whether you are looking for fresh ideas or practical solutions, this session offers valuable insights into how anticipatory action is transforming disaster risk management.

Speakers

  • Mamonaheng Monoto, Disaster Management Authority
  • Mr. Pangarso Suryotomo, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB)
  • Adherbal de la Rosa, CEPREDENAC

Facilitators

  • Chiara Mellucci, FAO
17:00 - 17:45
Berlin

Closing of day 2

Hybrid
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Join us as we round off the second day.

Facilitators

  • Gana Gantulga, IFRC
  • Lore Purroy, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME
09:00 - 09:10
Berlin

Opening of day 3

Hybrid
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Join us as we open the final day of the 12th Global Dialogue Platform.

Facilitators

  • Edward Parkinson, Start Network
09:10 - 09:15
Berlin

Day 3 session pitches

Hybrid

Facilitators

  • Edward Parkinson, Start Network
09:15 - 10:00
Berlin
Plenary

Embracing complexity: comfort or danger zone?

Hybrid
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Outside the comfort zone is where the magic happens, but it may also feel like a risky place. In the face of complexity, often the easiest decision is (consciously or unconsciously) to ignore it. In regions facing recurrent crises, anticipatory action is essential – yet challenges intensify when risks such as conflict, economic shocks and natural hazards converge. This session explores how impacts, often hard to attribute to one crisis, require responses that embrace wider socio-economic, environmental and other systems. We will discuss continuous context analysis, monitoring overlapping hazards, compounding and reverberating risks and vulnerabilities, integrated and longer-term strategies beyond anticipatory action, and engaging non-conventional stakeholders. Expect practical insights, storytelling and interactive experiences that will inspire new ways of thinking and working – while having fun.

Facilitators

  • Catalina Jaime, Climate Centre
  • Tesse de Boer, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)
10:30 - 11:30
Berlin

No sweat: scaling up anticipatory action for urban heat waves

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
Asia Pacific
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Extreme heat is a growing threat to urban populations, particularly the most vulnerable people. Anticipatory action can play a critical role in reducing the impacts of extreme heat by triggering pre-agreed actions and providing early assistance based on forecasts. The Heat Solutions Package, developed by the Center of Excellence and Duke University, along with global leadership on heat by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, provide resources and expertise to guide heat action planning. The Global Heat Resilience Service is another key initiative to support cities in developing and implementing heat action plans. This session explores how anticipatory action can be integrated into heat action planning at the city level by using existing tools, resources and partnerships. It will showcase successful examples of anticipatory action for heat, discuss challenges and opportunities, and identify ways to scale up this approach in cities worldwide.

What's stopping us? Navigating anticipatory action in conflict settings

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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Why do anticipatory action actors struggle to scale up? How do we get beyond pilots? What are the practical barriers and challenges to effective anticipatory action at scale in situations of violent conflict? This session will look at some of the barriers that prevent organizations from undertaking effective, principled anticipatory action, including internal systems and process barriers to external challenges of outreach, preparedness and community engagement. Participants will discuss prerequisites, enablers and challenges for working at scale in conflict environments, and identify which particular aspects of conflict environments limit and hinder anticipatory approaches. We will discuss what works and how to approach anticipatory action in conflict settings, based on two case studies (Africa and Asia-Pacific). We will also identify and discuss common challenges emerging from the case studies and jointly identify how best to mitigate these.

Speakers

  • Andy Wheatley, GRC/ICRC
  • Ansherina Grace Talavera, CARE
  • Idiris Mohamed, WFP

Facilitators

  • Marie Wagner, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)

Financing for shock-driven food crises

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Advanced
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The Financing for Shock-Driven Food Crises facility is a global effort to provide development and humanitarian organizations with new financing in anticipation of high levels of acute food insecurity. Led by the FAO Chief Economist Office and with G7 endorsement, the facility is working to bring new financing to prevent spikes in acute food insecurity and reduce humanitarian expenditures due to extreme shocks. Set to launch in 2025, it will complement the country-level anticipatory action frameworks and forecast systems in place, adding cash (for complex conditions such as forecast uninsurable and unanticipated events), and further top-up funding when there are catastrophic events using insurance. There are plans to develop systems for a combination of hazards (up to 12) – both uninsurable and insurable – to mitigate the impacts of isolated and compounding shocks. This session will engage participants to identify gaps and needs, ensuring the facility adds value to efforts to scale up.

Speakers

  • Dr. Jerry Skees, Global Centre on Disaster Risk and Poverty (GCDRP)
  • Shirin Merola, World Food Programme (WFP)

Facilitators

  • Antonio Scognamillo, FAO

Wild card session 5

Interactive workshop
In person only
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To be confirmed.
10:30 - 13:00
Berlin

Demystifying artificial intelligence for anticipatory action

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Intermediate
None
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It is 6:00pm in Nairobi and Miracle, the Anticipation Hub’s artificial intelligence (AI) system, is calculating how to allocate funds before a forecast drought in the Horn of Africa. At 6:05pm, it wires funds to a local organization and sends multilingual messages to farmers eligible for cash assistance. This scenario feels like fiction and raises questions about the potential and reliability of AI for anticipatory action. In this session, we’ll demystify this scenario by explaining the basics, sharing success stories and hosting a World Café to discuss data, ethics and policy. Participants will explore tools and models used across the anticipatory action cycle, and a non-technical plenary will address societal and practical challenges while exploring AI's opportunities. Uniting humanitarians, academics and industry professionals, this workshop will empower participants to critically assess AI's potential, avoid pitfalls and foster a community for AI in anticipatory action.

Speakers

  • Vitus Benson, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI BGC)
  • Anne Schauss, Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology
  • Achuil, South Sudan Red Cross (SSRC)
  • Martijn Kwant, Deltares

Facilitators

  • Anne Schauss, Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology
  • Jessica Kühnle, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)
  • Marie Wagner, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)
  • Beth Simons, Welthungerhilfe (WHH)
  • Vitus Benson, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI BGC)

Leveraging anticipatory action and epidemic forecasting to alleviate prolonged crises

Interactive workshop
Hybrid
Introduction
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Public health emergencies (e.g., outbreaks), whether isolated events or part of more complex crises, pose a major burden in many countries. For some health crises, information and insights are available before their onset; these can inform actions and make it possible to prevent and/or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. This interactive workshop will invite participants to play through scenarios to learn how to effectively develop anticipatory action frameworks for health impacts that may emerge slowly over time as protracted crises, or suddenly and acutely. Participants will learn about new tools and guidance, and grapple with multiple layers of health-risk information in time and space. They will also hear real-world experiences from Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia. Finally, they will discuss the elements required to scale up and mainstream anticipatory action for health through a set of interactive scenarios.
12:00 - 13:00
Berlin

Preparing for the (un)predictable: connecting the dots in the MENA region

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Introduction
Middle East and North Africa
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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) faces multiple crises and the humanitarian system is stretched. As a result, innovative solutions are needed to bridge gaps and use resources more efficiently. There is an opportunity to embed anticipatory action into ongoing efforts across the humanitarian, development and peacebuilding nexus, but the MENA countries need to integrate and enhance their anticipatory action mechanisms. This requires more holistic investment to improve preparedness based on scientific information, analysis of socio-economic impacts, early warnings and pre-agreed plans (with pre-agreed finance and actions), and will involve actors including governments and partners. This year, the first MENA Dialogue Platform was held, bringing together participants from across the region to build a common knowledge on anticipatory action. This session will discuss the evidence in the MENA region and the complexity of integrating anticipatory action as part of the 'big picture'.

Speakers

  • Krystell Santamaria, IFRC
  • Jacquelyn Pinat, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
  • Celine Charbel, Lebanese Red Cross (LRC)
  • Christoph Baade, UN World Food Programme (WFP)

Facilitators

  • Krystell Santamaria, IFRC

The Loss and Damage Fund: key developments and opportunities for anticipatory action

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
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To be confirmed.

Anticipating ENSO events: insights from southern Africa's large-scale El Niño drought anticipation

Presentations or panel
Hybrid
Intermediate
Africa
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In 2019, southern Africa's Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG) was founded by its secretariat members to strengthen inter-agency efforts towards regional anticipatory action for climate shocks. Based on seasonal forecasts for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seven of the Southern Africa Development Community's Member States, with RAAWG partners, activated anticipatory action frameworks as early as July 2023, months ahead of when the peak impacts were forecast. These actions reached more than two million people and unlocked close to 31 million US dollars of financing. This is the largest funding for anticipatory action in southern Africa, and the largest number of parallel activations in a region to date. In this interactive session, government stakeholders and RAAWG partners will reflect on the impacts of these drought activations and share the multiple streams of evidence, data on returns on investment, and operational lessons.

Speakers

  • Mrs Mamonaheng Monoto, Disaster Management authority
  • Luis Joao Artur, Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (UEM)
  • Nichola Bodanac, FAO
  • Seheno Andrianiaina, Start Network
  • Regina Omlor, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Facilitators

  • Osborne Sibande, UNWFP
  • Irene Amuron, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC)

Wild card session 6

Interactive workshop
In person only
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To be confirmed.
14:30 - 15:30
Berlin
Plenary

The 'nitty gritty' of anticipatory action in complex contexts

Hybrid
Intermediate
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Building on the revelations and interrogations of the previous plenary, this one seeks to answer the questions raised with practical examples of strategies and approaches being deployed to manage the challenges and uncertainty of working in complex contexts. Hear from different actors about forecasting complexity, how early warning systems and financing instruments for anticipatory action have accommodated this complexity, and about the operational implementation of anticipatory action in complex contexts.

Speakers

  • Halima Saidou Sidibe, United Nations Office for the Coordination Of Humanitarian Affairs

Facilitators

  • Ella Gerry, Start Network
  • Julia Burakowski, Welthungerhilfe
15:30 - 16:30
Berlin

Closing ceremony

Hybrid

Facilitators

  • Edward Parkinson, Start Network
  • Alessandra Gilotta, Anticipation Hub
Organizing Committee and Sponsors
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