Agenda

There is considerable interest across the anticipatory action community in making evidence-generation more reliable and comparable across contexts. Therefore, the Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability and Learning (MEAL) Practitioners Group has launched a consultative process to source suggestions for a common menu of core indicators – to allow organizations to measure the effectiveness of anticipatory action interventions – and to propose a basic set of quality criteria for evidence-generation in anticipatory action. In this session, the MEAL Practitioners Group will share and seek inputs for this proposed menu of core indicators, and reflect together on quality concerns and aspirations in anticipatory action evidence-generation.

Cash and anticipatory action are often paired together and make a handsome couple. But we need to ask deeper questions: is it what people want? How much? When before the disaster? Are there markets in place? Would in-kind support be better? With all these questions, it is clear we have a lot to learn about anticipatory cash transfers. In this session, we will provide a snapshot of the lessons learned across eight countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and discuss where we can take this forward, highlighting the evidence needed to convince governments and international partners that cash payouts are a good idea. It will draw on what has been learned to date (as a proof of concept), with recommendations on: formulating anticipatory cash transfers alongside in-kind support; the rationale for cash 'plus'; and framing this from the perspective of at-risk households and so moving away from sector-specific or mandate-based designs.

Understanding and addressing compounding and cascading hazards is essential for improving food security. This session will explore challenges and solutions for addressing complex risks in early and anticipatory action. Starting with an overview of the current state of compounding hazards and risk analysis in anticipatory action, the facilitators will discuss advancements, identify gaps and outline future directions. Next, participants will engage in an interactive brainstorm to identify opportunities, challenges and solutions related to integrating complex risks into anticipatory action frameworks, with the aim of uncovering practical insights and innovative solutions. The session will conclude by showcasing successful examples that address these challenges, highlighting the effective strategies and tools, and the crucial role of local actors. Join us to discover new approaches for mitigating food insecurity through anticipatory action!

We all have ambitions for what a perfect world would look like – but what would an ideal 'disaster prepared' world look like? Come and jointly design our 'train of ambition' for anticipatory action in complex contexts, and discuss how we can mainstream this into our disaster-risk-management systems. Help us co-create our 'perfect' world: what needs to be done to get there, and which contribution will each of us make towards attaining this?

This session focuses on: (1) how financing for anticipatory action could go further; (2) how climate and disaster-risk financing and insurance (CDRFI) instruments can help protect more lives ahead of predictable crises; and (3) how to build accountability to those who need anticipatory action the most. First, diverse case studies will highlight good practices, opportunities and challenges in terms of improving access, coordination, use and the longer-term provision of pre-arranged funding for anticipatory action. Second, the potential for CDRFI instruments to support this will be debated. Participants will scrutinize instruments and assess the feasibility, scale, type of investors (public and private), target groups, operational risks and alignment with humanitarian principles. Lastly, participants will share ideas for scaling up anticipatory action through increased financing, covering protection gaps, and strengthening its impacts for those who need it most.

Anticipatory action offers significant potential to mitigate the vulnerabilities of at-risk groups in crisis situations. Despite growing recognition of the need to integrate protection, gender and inclusion (PGI) into anticipatory action, implementation remains inconsistent and often lacks capacity, resources and monitoring mechanisms. This workshop will launch the recently developed 'PGI in AA' toolkit, which synthesizes three years of dialogue and collaboration and provides practical guidance to ensure inclusive and protective practices. It is the result of joint efforts and collaboration by several members of the PGI in AA working group, who will facilitate. The workshop will also emphasize the need for people-centred approaches and collaboration and learning among local, national and international actors. Participants will engage in interactive discussions and practical exercises about how to apply PGI principles effectively in various contexts.

Anticipatory action has largely been developed to prevent or mitigate the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards during peace times, but there is a need to explore the value of anticipatory action in conflict settings. In many countries (e.g., Mali and Myanmar), conflict and security triggers, in addition to climate and environmental hazards, are often the root cause of fragility. Therefore, the development of a compound risk index that is subjective and accompanied by impact-based, sense-making narrative is key. World Vision came up with a programme approach known as the Fragile Contexts Programme Approach, which brings key stakeholders together to produce a snapshot of the current situation. The Netherlands Red Cross’s data and digital team, 510, developed a tool that quantifies the risk from climate to infrastructure project designs in conflict settings and proposes adaptation measures. Through these innovative tools, project implementation can adapt quickly and be risk informed.

Mainstreaming anticipatory action in the humanitarian programme cycle is a huge opportunity to change how we collectively manage disaster risk in many ways, including beyond the benefits typically highlighted. Too often, actors at the forefront of managing disaster risks are brought too late or solely on the question of how to make the programme more ‘locally led’. We’d like to challenge this notion. Hear from an exclusively local and national NGO practitioner panel about these opportunities and benefits, and what is needed to build anticipatory disaster-risk-financing systems that prioritize community and local engagement. Critically reflect through questions and discussions on what is needed to mainstream these approaches across actors, achieve better practices, multiply the impact of a risk-informed anticipatory approach, and further develop ideas on how to design more locally led, effective and coordinated humanitarian action through the avenue of anticipatory action.

Mainstreaming anticipatory action within the humanitarian sector and government planning will require going beyond individual agencies looking at their own projects; it will require shared, coordinated action to mainstream this approach into collective planning. Shared frameworks are one way to do this. This session will highlight the importance of coordination in anticipatory action, drawing on lessons from the development and use of shared, interagency frameworks. It will highlight gaps and set an agenda for improved interagency coordination. A panel will highlight good practices and gaps, followed by a discussion with the audience. Key questions will include: - What are the advantages of coordinating anticipatory action through shared frameworks? - What good-practice examples exist? - How best can governments and other actors, including local actors, be included in shared frameworks? - How can shared frameworks be enhanced and implemented in more countries?

Research on the 2021 floods in Germany found that an inability to imagine the scale of flooding hampered preparations and led to devastating impacts. In this session, we will be looking at the role of imagination in helping us to anticipate complex crises. We will explore both scientific and creative methods to help us imagine unknown futures, equipping participants with skills and knowledge to apply in their own work.

Locust swarms devastating entire landscapes have affected human societies since the beginnings of agriculture, and locust plagues regularly threaten to cause food shortages for many millions of people. In this session we want to showcase current examples from the Horn of Africa and discuss some of the still-open questions with you, including: How is anticipatory action for locusts different from weather-related anticipatory action? When is the right timing for anticipatory action? What can trigger anticipatory action and what are most effective actions at different points in time?

The humanitarian sector plays a pivotal role in anticipatory action, aiming to reduce the impacts of disasters and crises before they occur. With the Climate and Environment Charter calling on organizations to maximize environmental sustainability and rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in programmes, there’s growing expertise on the environmental impacts of humanitarian response. The negative environmental impacts of anticipatory action need to be further explored to make sure interventions 'do no harm' and build long-term resilience via eco-friendly practices and nature-based solutions. This session will raise awareness of the importance of environment-smart anticipatory action and explore how programmes can better incorporate and minimize environmental impacts, drawing on experiences from emergency response programmes. Cash and voucher assistance, one of the most widely adopted instruments, will be discussed as one of the solutions for environment-smart anticipatory action.

South Sudan has, once again, been threatened with record floods. In this interactive session, participants will engage with practitioners who are tasked with strengthening anticipatory action and emergency response, in a country faced with mass population displacement due to conflict and climate change. Participants will have the opportunity to engage with current images and voice notes shared by emergency managers, oral histories of flooding from community elders, existing plans and operations, flood forecasts, and climate storylines of future flooding to answer the question: how do all these pieces fit together to build robust and integrated anticipatory action and disaster response?

In June 2023, Grand Bargain signatories agreed to prioritize scaling up anticipatory action and identify barriers that could be addressed within its 3.0 framework, as a contribution to reducing humanitarian needs. As the only platform that brings together donors, UN organizations, the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, and international and local/national NGOs, the Grand Bargain is uniquely positioned to drive the necessary political changes required to address these challenges. In February 2023, the Grand Bargain caucus to scale up anticipatory action was launched. It was created to secure commitments around three key themes: (1) increased financing for coordinated anticipatory action: (2) developing key parameters and a joint methodology for tracking funding, including build funding and pre-arranged and released fuel funding: and (3) recommendations to improve coordination. It also agreed a working definition of anticipatory action. This session will present the results to date.

This session focuses on the role of local actors in mainstreaming anticipatory action. Bringing together perspectives from academia and practice, it is hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Farm Community Trust Zimbabwe (FCTZ), Welthungerhilfe (WHH), the People's Disaster Risk Reduction Network Philippines and Ruhr-University Bochum. FAO will present insights from its Community Engagement in Anticipatory Action project, sharing results from a pilot in Guatemala. FCTZ and WHH will illustrate the People First Impact Method (P-FIM), which has fostered community-driven early action protocols in Zimbabwe. And a case study from the Philippines will highlight good practices for local leadership in trigger development. Participants will learn about innovative tools and methodologies that enhance the inclusivity and effectiveness of anticipatory action, and how integrating local voices facilitates the adoption and sustainability of anticipatory action.

An exhibit area featuring printed graphics and illustrations on 'Anticipatory action vs. traditional humanitarian response' and 'Anticipatory action in the disaster risk management cycle', hosted by Welthungerhilfe (WHH).

Extreme heat is a growing threat to urban populations, particularly the most vulnerable people. Anticipatory action can play a critical role in reducing the impacts of extreme heat by triggering pre-agreed actions and providing early assistance. The Heat Solutions Package, developed by the Center of Excellence, along with global leadership on heat by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, provide resources and expertise to guide heat action planning. This was apparent in April this year when the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society activated its Early Action Protocol for Heatwaves. This session will also feature interventions from the chief heat officer of the city of Dhaka North, from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs on the CERF anticipatory action frameworks and their potential application for extreme heat, and from the Global Heat Health Information Network. Overall, it will explore how anticipatory action can be integrated into heat-action planning at the city level by using existing tools, resources and partnerships.

Why do anticipatory action actors struggle to scale up? How do we get beyond pilots? What are the practical barriers and challenges to effective anticipatory action at scale in situations of violent conflict? This session will look at some of the barriers that prevent organizations from undertaking effective, principled anticipatory action, including internal systems and process barriers to external challenges of outreach, preparedness and community engagement. Participants will discuss prerequisites, enablers and challenges for working at scale in conflict environments, and identify which particular aspects of conflict environments limit and hinder anticipatory approaches. We will discuss what works and how to approach anticipatory action in conflict settings, based on two case studies (Africa and Asia-Pacific). We will also identify and discuss common challenges emerging from the case studies and jointly identify how best to mitigate these.

The Financing for Shock-Driven Food Crises facility is a global effort to provide development and humanitarian organizations with new financing in anticipation of high levels of acute food insecurity. Led by the FAO Chief Economist Office and with G7 endorsement, the facility is working to bring new financing to prevent spikes in acute food insecurity and reduce humanitarian expenditures due to extreme shocks. Set to launch in 2025, it will complement the country-level anticipatory action frameworks and forecast systems in place, adding cash (for complex conditions such as forecast uninsurable and unanticipated events), and further top-up funding when there are catastrophic events using insurance. There are plans to develop systems for a combination of hazards (up to 12) – both uninsurable and insurable – to mitigate the impacts of isolated and compounding shocks. This session will engage participants to identify gaps and needs, ensuring the facility adds value to efforts to scale up.

Hotel Resilience, a game about risk prevention, reduction and transfer, was originally developed by Pablo Suarez as part of a Climate Risk Insurance of Munich Climate Insurance Initiative and the German Cooperation for International Development. An introduction to the game can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaRpGPymmFg During the game, players take the roles of hotel managers on an island that is frequently hit by tropical storms. The players have to manage resources, expand their business and protect themselves against natural hazards by investing in disaster-risk-management measures like early warning systems or index insurance. This wild card session, hosted by Welthungerhilfe, showcases additional game elements that allow players to use anticipatory action to mitigate the storms' impacts.

It is 6:00pm in Nairobi and Miracle, the Anticipation Hub’s artificial intelligence (AI) system, is calculating how to allocate funds before a forecast drought in the Horn of Africa. At 6:05pm, it wires funds to a local organization and sends multilingual messages to farmers eligible for cash assistance. This scenario feels like fiction and raises questions about the potential and reliability of AI for anticipatory action. In this session, we’ll demystify this scenario by explaining the basics, sharing success stories and hosting a World Café to discuss data, ethics and policy. Participants will explore tools and models used across the anticipatory action cycle, and a non-technical plenary will address societal and practical challenges while exploring AI's opportunities. Uniting humanitarians, academics and industry professionals, this workshop will empower participants to critically assess AI's potential, avoid pitfalls and foster a community for AI in anticipatory action.

Public health emergencies (e.g., outbreaks), whether isolated events or part of more complex crises, pose a major burden in many countries. For some health crises, information and insights are available before their onset; these can inform actions and make it possible to prevent and/or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. This interactive workshop will invite participants to play through scenarios to learn how to effectively develop anticipatory action frameworks for health impacts that may emerge slowly over time as protracted crises, or suddenly and acutely. Participants will learn about new tools and guidance, and grapple with multiple layers of health-risk information in time and space. They will also hear real-world experiences from Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia. Finally, they will discuss the elements required to scale up and mainstream anticipatory action for health through a set of interactive scenarios.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) faces multiple crises and the humanitarian system is stretched. As a result, innovative solutions are needed to bridge gaps and use resources more efficiently. There is an opportunity to embed anticipatory action into ongoing efforts across the humanitarian, development and peacebuilding nexus, but the MENA countries need to integrate and enhance their anticipatory action mechanisms. This requires more holistic investment to improve preparedness based on scientific information, analysis of socio-economic impacts, early warnings and pre-agreed plans (with pre-agreed finance and actions), and will involve actors including governments and partners. This year, the first MENA Dialogue Platform was held, bringing together participants from across the region to build a common knowledge on anticipatory action. This session will discuss the evidence in the MENA region and the complexity of integrating anticipatory action as part of the 'big picture'.

This session will raise awareness of the ongoing negotiations surrounding the governance structure of the Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP29, and explore the role of other loss and damage funding arrangements, such as the Global Shield against Climate Risks, in supporting anticipatory action. Participants will discuss and learn from both the opportunities and shortcomings of the existing loss and damage funding structure, as they prepare for COP29 and other upcoming engagement opportunities.

In 2019, southern Africa's Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG) was founded by its secretariat members to strengthen inter-agency efforts towards regional anticipatory action for climate shocks. Based on seasonal forecasts for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), seven of the Southern Africa Development Community's Member States, with RAAWG partners, activated anticipatory action frameworks as early as July 2023, months ahead of when the peak impacts were forecast. These actions reached more than two million people and unlocked close to 31 million US dollars of financing. This is the largest funding for anticipatory action in southern Africa, and the largest number of parallel activations in a region to date. In this interactive session, government stakeholders and RAAWG partners will reflect on the impacts of these drought activations and share the multiple streams of evidence, data on returns on investment, and operational lessons.

How should we design anticipatory action in a changing climate? Come explore different ideas in this wild card session!