Agenda

Link is available on the email invitation sent to Anticipation Hub Partners.

For confirmed participants attending in person, you are welcome to use our venue as a meeting place to meet each other. You can check who will be here in person on the "Meet & Greet" page. Curious about what´s happening on anticipatory action around the world? You can get a demo of the Anticipation Hub global map from Marius Horata. For those of you who want to join some educational anticipatory action fun before the intense few days, Karen Dall has just the right games for you. So join our networking space!

What is the definition of a trigger again? And how to develop early actions? What are the key elements of anticipatory action? When does anticipatory action end and where does response start?
In this session we will bring everybody up to speed regarding anticipatory action so that you are well prepared for three days of anticipatory action talk. We will walk you through the concept of anticipatory action: why we do it, how we do it, when we do it! It will be an interactive session that includes examples, small exercises and time for reflection and your questions. Don’t be shy, this session is the space to get to know anticipatory action and ask all your questions!

Generating robust scientific evidence on the impacts of anticipatory action is challenging. At the same time, research on the efficiency and effectiveness of anticipatory action is essential for the decision to scale up existing programs and the engagement of the donor community. 

In this session, we introduce methods for conducting rigorous impact evaluations of anticipatory action programs. The advantages of household panel survey data and the usage of econometric methods for causal inference are highlighted and discussed. 

We present findings of a rigorous impact evaluation of forecast-based humanitarian assistance that the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and People in Need (PIN) implemented in Mongolia with funding from the German Federal Foreign Office. Mongolia is increasingly afflicted by extremely severe winters that threaten the livelihood of pastoralist households. In the past decade, Mongolia has become a testing ground for innovative anticipatory action programs.  

In early 2021, PIK and PIN implemented an anticipatory action program among a randomly selected group of beneficiary households. Forecast-based cash transfers were disbursed to participants of a long-running representative household survey living in areas with a high predicted risk of experiencing extreme weather conditions. For the treatment and the control group, four waves of detailed household panel survey data are available from before the intervention. A fifth panel wave was collected after the extreme event. The availability of high-quality baseline and endline data allows us to rigorously assess the effectiveness of unconditional cash transfers along various socio-economic dimensions.

Moderator: Svenja Fluhrer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Speakers:
- Dekhchinjav Tuvshintugs, People in Need Mongolia (PIN)
- Dr. Kati Krähnert, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
- Lukas Mogge, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
- Julian Röckert, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

This session will present a proven and tested approach on community-led, gender-responsive and inclusive anticipatory action implemented in the Philippines and other countries using the B-READY (Building Resilient, Adaptive and Disaster-Ready Communities) and Strengthening Urban Preparedness through Scaling up of Pre-emptive Action and Emergency Response -BARMM models of anticipatory action, which combine three innovations: 1) Impact-based disaster forecasting – predicting the next crisis 2) Pre-emptive action, through cash transfers – getting the money to those who need it most before the crisis hits so they can prepare better; and 3) Shifting from humanitarian response after disaster to pre-emptive response – investing in communities’ resilience and preparedness, so the crisis becomes less of an emergency. Further, by using climate data and science in early warning systems, early access to social protection and safeguarding programs make anticipatory action the first line of defence against disasters.
Anticipatory action, using these models, was initiated with the B-READY project in 2019 and enhanced with the Scaling up of Pre-emptive Action and Emergency Response -BARMM project. The Philippines is now ranked most at risk among 193 countries worldwide, due to its exposure, vulnerability and susceptibility, and being most affected by extreme weather events. The approach has been implemented in Indonesia, Sudan and other countries in Asia that are faced with chronic hazards, to reduce the impact of disasters on their poorer populations.
Advancing a tested and scalable anticipatory action approach to directly support the well-being of climate vulnerable and disaster-prone communities and further generating evidence for future responses will help break the cycle of poverty, disasters, and debt experienced by the most vulnerable communities. The lessons, evidence and collective experiences of anticipatory action in the Philippines, as implemented by the B-READY and Scaling up of Pre-emptive Action and Emergency Response -BARMM projects, will strengthen early action measures of humanitarian actors and governments, and empower, enhance dignity, decision-making and well-being of climate -vulnerable and disaster-affected population, especially women, young people, and the most vulnerable. 

Speakers:
- Maria Theresa Abogado, Oxfam Pilipinas
- Wendy Smith, Global Parametrics
- Al-jamen Ra"uf t. Tubojan, Cotabato City Local Government, Philippines
- Atty. Melchor Mergal, Provincial Government of Eastern Samar, Philippines

We will pool insights and practical experiences on the forms of anticipatory action proven effective in addressing hazard impacts for children. Introducing Save the Children’s Framework for Anticipatory Action, we will explore the potential for developing more child-centred forms of engagement.

Speakers:
- Lisa Butenhoff, Head of Save the Children’s Anticipatory Action Unit 
- Pankaj Mishra, Global Advisor, Emergency Preparedness & Anticipatory Action, Save the Children
- Laura Swift, Senior Food Security and Livelihoods Technical Advisor, Hunger Reduction & Livelihoods Team 
- Claire Taylor, Programme Development & Quality Director, Somalia Country Office

Humanitarians have a growing interest in weather and climate forecasts that are associated with pre- agreed thresholds and used to trigger actions before the occurrence of extreme events. These triggers are thus one of the main building blocks of Anticipatory Action (AA) plans and should define when and where early action should take place and who and what is likely to be impacted.
For this reason, the impact-based forecasting (IbF) approach should be the basis of the AA triggers. All the conditions for IbF are however not always met; hence a need to get the humanitarians and weather and climate scientists and forecast providers to dialogue. This session fosters this dialogue around three main topics: (i) better understand the trigger and more generally the weather and climate information requests of the humanitarian actors, (ii) discuss the scientific challenges and the issues faced by forecast providers with regard to the new humanitarian demands
and (iii) identify the best frameworks for collaboration and possible pathways for institutionalising triggers for scaled AA implementation. The session will be held as panel discussions facilitated by the Climate Centre with panellists from a leading research institution, two regional meteorological centres across Africa and the Asia-Pacific region and selected humanitarian agencies, namely Red Cross National Societies and WFP.

Speakers: 
- Sbongile Hlubi, FbF coordinator, Lesotho Red Cross Society
- Rammolenyane Lethaha Sixtus, Lesotho Meteorological Services
- Bipul Neupane, Director, Disaster Management, Nepal Red Cross
- Graziela Olua, Meteorologist, BMKG Indonesia TBC

Disaster Risk Finance systems (DRF) rely on basic pillars: the impact forecast model, contingency plans, and pre-positioned funding. When a hazard is forecast, it is expected that at-risk communities can rely on the model to trigger the release of predictable funding to implement anticipatory action plans that can mitigate impacts by supporting exposed and vulnerable people. But what happens when the models are not able to capture the uncertainties in the natural environment, and those brought by climate change (i.e., frequency of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Pacific)? 
DRF systems are designed to reduce or manage risks, which is key to protecting lives, livelihoods, and assets by ensuring that the right financing is triggered at the right time, for the right actions. Thus, interrogating how it accounts for uncertainties aims to increase understanding of how it can truly fulfil this objective in the context of anticipatory humanitarian action.

Event lead/facilitator
Ana Marie Dizon, FOREWARN coordinator – Philippines, Start Network

Speakers

• Leonie LeBorgne, Start Ready programme manager, Start Network
• Nicolas Boyrie, global lead, Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF), IFRC
• Christoph Baade, anticipatory action analyst, UN CERF
• Anila Ajmal, FOREWARN coordinator – Pakistan, Start Network
• Marc van den Homberg, scientific lead, 510 Netherlands Red Cross

Synthesis
Milli Cooper, technical partnerships advisor, Start Network

An interactive session to critically reflect on the criteria that make different infectious diseases more or less suited for an anticipatory action approach, considering both the intrinsic qualities of different infectious diseases and the necessary enabling environment. 

Speakers:
- Tilly Alcayna, Technical Advisor - Health and Climate Change, Red Cross Climate Centre
- Franziska Kellerhaus, Health Cluster Lead, German Red Cross
- Léo Tremblay, Project Manager Meteorological and Climatic Anticipation, Doctors Without Borders

Early action initiatives that make people safer from disaster are being implemented across the globe. However, more work needs to be done to establish an effective evidence base from which lessons can be drawn about what works, what doesn’t, and what is still needed to take early action to the scale demanded by the increasing impacts of climate change.

Earlier this year, the Risk-informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) published its flagship report, Early Action: The State of Play 2021, to contribute to that evidence base. The report was designed to provide a snapshot of early warning early action commitment, investment and activity over the previous year. And because the field is constantly developing, REAP committed to updating its analysis annually.

At the 9th Global Dialogue Platform, REAP held a consultation on the findings of the first State of Play report, gaining invaluable input that ensured the report’s recommendations were robust and relevant. In this year’s event, participants will have the opportunity to hear and provide reflections on the advance findings from Early Action: The State of Play 2022, which will influence global, regional and national policy- and decision-making. Participants will be invited to provide their unique expertise and insights to help shape the emerging themes and recommendations in to actions that will scale up early action in 2023.

Speakers:
- Simon Loveday, MEL & Advocacy Coordinator, REAP, 
- Ben Webster, Head of Secretarat, REAP
- Marie Wagner, Project Manager, Global Public Policy Institute

What are opportunities to link anticipatory action and disaster risk financing? Where can the anticipatory action and the disaster risk financing community work better together? Dissecting some of the entry points has been the core topic of the Anticipation Hub’s working group on AA and risk financing, jointly hosted with the Insuresilience Global Partnership and REAP. In this interactive speed talk session we will present some of the key ideas published the working group’s compendium, discuss with you what resonates and what not, and in doing so, preparing the grounds for the workplan in 2023. Let’s talk and work across sectors!

Speakers:
- Dr. Nikolas Scherer, Manager for Policy and Advocacy on Anticipation and Disaster Risk Financing, Anticipation Hub
- Lea Kulick, Advisor, InsuResilience Secretariat
- Emma Flaherty, Implementation Lead, Risk informed Early Action Partnership 
- Lesley Ndlovu, CEO, African Risk Capacity
- Jonathon Gascoigne, Lead Risk Finance Advisor, Centre for Disaster Protection 
- Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Head of Global Risk Management and Reporting, UNDRR
- Kimberly Brown, Head of Mobile for Humanitarian Innovation, GSMA

The Glossary of Early Action terms outlines two main approaches to Anticipatory Action (AA). The most known with the three pillars of pre-defined risk analytics and thresholds, pre-positioned financing and pre-determined action plans (FBF, Start Ready, CERF, DREF). And the less structured approach with more dynamic risk analytics, that is based on expert decision making to trigger action, and is more flexible in terms of geography and hazard, e.g. includes conflict and epidemics (Start Fund, DKH’s Small Emergency Fund, NEXUS’ Anticipatory and Emergency Response Fund). Both approaches face financial, operational and risk analytics challenges which limit their use.
This session asks; what is the potential of blending AA approaches?  
Before open discussion, the team at the Start Network will present a case study example where we aimed to overcome challenges by blending elements of both approaches. This was for anticipating Tropical Cyclones in Madagascar through the Start Fund.
The approach included predefined thresholds to prompt action in advance of Tropical Cyclones and pre-agreed humanitarian projects, but relied on expert decision making typical of the Start Fund to allocate funding. In 2022 the system successfully prompted the raising of the first two Start Fund anticipation alerts for Tropical Cyclones funded before landfall occurred.
Come to the session to discover, discuss, and debate what the opportunities and pitfalls of this type of approach could be. 

Speakers:
- Edward Parkinson, Risk Analysis Advisor, Crisis Anticipation and Risk Financing, START Network
- Seheno Andrianiaina, Forecast Response Warning Network Coordinator, START Network

Somalia is experiencing one of the worst crises in recent generations. The national emergency declared at the end of 2021 developed slowly as several shocks combined – locusts, the economic impacts of COVID-19 and three successive poor rainy seasons. Other more local shocks, such as riverine floods, exacerbated difficulties further. Since then, another fourth rainy season has failed, a fifth is currently underway and expected to perform poorly again, with forecasts indicating that a poor sixth rainy season is probably in 2023. UN OCHA expects about 6.7 million people to be acutely food insecure in Somalia in October to December 2022.
This crisis has been developing since 2020, leading many to argue that more could have been done in advance to prevent things reaching such a serious situation. This session will discuss how such anticipatory action is feasible and can be effective in such large-scale crises caused by multiple-shocks, what its role should be and how far expectations of anticipatory action are realistic. The session will entail a particular consideration of the actions people (wish to) take on their own terms to mitigate crises, and whether anticipatory action can be designed to better support peoples’ own agency during crises.
Our starting point will be the experiences of pastoralists and farmers in Somalia who lived through a range of shocks over the past 2-3 years. These stories will highlight how people were responding to face the developing situation, as well as the constraints that they faced in better preparing for and mitigating the evolving crises. 

Moderator: Lena Weingärtner, Research Associate, ODI

Speakers:
- Mohamed Aden Sharmake, Somali Red Crescent Society 
- Khadar S. Mohamed Nur, Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) 
- Nancy Balfour, Centre for Humanitarian Change 
- Maurine Ambani, WFP 
- Muzzamil Abdi Sheikh, SPARC 

The Forecast-based Warning, Analysis and Response Network (FOREWARN) connects humanitarians with scientists, academics and risk experts to improve NGOs’ access to and understanding of expert analysis, ensuring quality risk information can be used effectively in advance of crises.After almost five years of innovation and testing, an evaluation of FOREWARN has been commissioned to understand what NGOs are doing differently as a result of having access to timely, quality and contextually relevant risk information, and how this has changed the ways in which NGOs plan for and act ahead of disasters. Has access to science made it easier to act earlier? How have communities been involved until now? How can actors in anticipation work with communities to validate, calibrate, and contextualise early warning systems based in science? And how can the AA community use learning from FOREWARN’s experiences to continue building community participation into anticipatory programming sustainably, and at scale?

Moderator: Milli Cooper, START Network

Speakers:
- Ana Dizon, FOREWARN Philippines Coordinator, Start Network
- Ashraful Haque, FOREWARN Bangladesh Coordinator, Start Network 
- Anila Ajmal, FOREWARN Pakistan Coordinator, Start Network 
- Seheno Andrianiaina, FOREWARN Madagascar Coordinator, Start Network

In this highly energetic and interactive session, participants will be immersed in a role play exercise to enable an open and constructive discussion about managing compounding risks of natural and biological hazards, displacement, conflict and violence. We will talk about the possibilities and impossibilities of anticipatory action how we could manage risks in a layer approach to support communities that are likely to be in complex crisis. It would be a great opportunity to make new connections and meet friends!

Speakers:
- Markus Geisser, ICRC, Senior Humanitarian Advisor and Anticipatory Action focal point
- Kim Karina Kaagaard Kristensen, Conflict-Sensitive Programming Specialist Anticipatory Action, FAO  
- Madhab Uprety, Climate Centre Asia Pacific Regional Adviser 
- Catalina Jaime, Lead of Climate and Conflict, Climate Centre

Who is involved when decisions are made and what information is available to those?

We will look at the following components:
Early warning is critical for anticipatory action, where providing information early on provides longer activation windows and lead time up to an event. Recent developments have led to great advances in the accuracy and reliability of the information, where cloud computing allows impact-based forecasts of flood inundation on continental scales and analyzing the impact on a local scale. Combining this data with local information on the vulnerability, such as critical infrastructure, allows investigation of impact.

Community-based data collection
There is a challenge to provide valuable data for more informed decision-making. Modelling and forecasting provide a global overview but require local context and data to have ground truth. Critical in the data collection is the involvement of local communities. While there are increasing efforts and demand for community engagement and accountability, and inclusive approaches in humanitarian assistance, reality shows that this is not common practice.

Data Ownership
Local communities have valuable, hyper-local knowledge of the place they live. By capturing and sharing this local knowledge, communities can contribute and access up-to-date information for anticipatory action and become more aware of risks and more resilient in the process.

Speakers:
- Richard Muchena, German Red Cross FbF delegate in Hargeisa
- Karen Dall, Capacity development advisor in anticipatory action at German Red Cross
- Frederique de Groen, Researcher at Deltares
- Sam Colchester, Impact Partnerships Associate at Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team
- Melanie Eckle-Elze, Partnership Associate at Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology (HeiGIT)
- Martijn Kwant, Impact-based Forecasting Researcher at Deltares

Since the last Global Dialogue Platform, member organisations of the Protection, Gender and Inclusion in AA working group have focused on cross-sectoral awareness raising and collating learning; during this interactive-intergenerational session this learning will be shared, and collective reflection and innovations will be captured to inform the sector agenda.

Speakers:
- Nagore Moran Llovet- Gender in Emergencies Advisor, Plan International UK
- Audrey Baete, Child protection, IFRC
- Cristina Perez, Plan International El Salvador
-Nguyen Thi Thu Ha, Gender Specialist, CARE International in Vietnam
- Lili Bazin, Humanity & Inclusion
- Allen Chaitezui, CBM- Zimbabwe
- Simon Safiatou, Niger Red Cross

To be truly effective at scale, early warning systems need to be part of a wider government system and not things that stand alone between a met service and their users. In this highly participative scenario, we will explore how governments respond to extreme weather, COVID and other threats to lives and livelihoods in order to identify key components for scaling up warnings and response.

Helen Ticehurst, Met Office UK – Session Lead
Nyree Pinder, Met Office UK – Co Lead

Facilitators:
- Gavin White – REAP 
- Elcaye Macasil, CREWS
- Julia Chasco – WMO 
- Dr Martin Talian, National Disaster Management Operations Centre, Kenya 

As AA is being taken to scale around the globe, many organizations invest in strengthening capacity for AA at the country level in a wide variety of ways. These investments not only enable AA, but strengthen preparedness and readiness, and improve overall response capacities. However, there has been little effort thus far to help identify the capacities needed for AA or to track and measure how anticipatory action programmes contribute to capacity development. Capturing these benefits is crucial for making the case for and demonstrating the value of investments in anticipatory action beyond the pre-arranged financing released upon the triggers.
This session will present research regarding the importance of capacity development and provide a brief overview of two tools to plan and capture capacity development: one developed through a collaboration between WFP and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and another based on IFRC’s Preparedness for Effective Response approach.

Speakers:
- Clemens Gros, Senior M&E Adviser, Climate Centre
- Arielle Tozier de la Poterie, Global early action and research advisor, German Red Cross, Anticipation Hub
- Gantsetseg Gantulga, Coordinator, Anticipatory Action IFRC

In this session we share insights on integrating anticipatory action and social protection in Bangladesh, Lesotho, Namibia, Somalia, Dominican Republic and the Philippines. Building on feasibility studies and research, we explore how this integration could be locally led, nationally owned and sustainable in the long term. Participants will learn what works and what doesn’t, and how a successful integration can be achieved.  

Speakers:
- Selma Lendelvo, Senior researcher, Multidisciplinary Research Centre, University of Namibia (UNAM)
- Sheikh Khairul Rahaman, Anticipatory Action Project Manager, German Red Cross 
- Catherine Jones, Anticipatory Action Lead for the Regional office for Asia and the Pacific, FAO
- Maurine Ambani, Anticipatory Action coordinator for Eastern Africa, WFP
- Dominican Republic Social Protection System Government Representative (TBC)

Much has been said about the need for more funding to scale-up anticipatory action. But less has been said about how that funding is used. While more funding is needed, the funding that is available should be used in the most effective and efficient manner to support vulnerable communities.
This session will focus on the lessons learned from financing anticipatory actions around a few guiding questions: what enables anticipatory financing? What is needed to be in place for financing to be most impactful? What worked? What could be improved? What are the limits? What have we learned about the cost-effectiveness of anticipatory actions? How can anticipatory finance support disaster risk reduction and long-term resilience?

Moderator: Emily Montier, Consultant, Tetra Tech

Speakers:
- Nazira Lacayo, Senior Officer, Anticipatory pillar of Disaster Response Emergency Fund, IFRC
- Niccolò Lombardi, Team Leader Anticipatory Action, FAO
- Julia Wittig, Anticipatory Action Focal Point, Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), OCHA
- David Peters, Operations Advisor, Crisis Anticipation and Risk Finance, Start Network
- Shirin Merola, Anticipatory Action Country Support Lead, WFP

While drought has been discussed in past Dialogue Platforms, the focus has so far been less on the Americas. With more and more anticipatory action stakeholders working on this hazard in the region, this session will give the floor to their practitioners to showcase: how do they address this hazards? What triggers have been identified? What forecasts can be used? What actions are most needed? How can financing be mobilized? What are the plans for collaboration, could a joint and coordinated activation be possible (like for Bandgladesh floods in 2020)?
Speakers will also be put on the spot (or the interview hot chair): what more could their organization do to bring drought anticipation to scale?
Both in-person and virtual participants will be asked to join the discussion with their own drought experience, in a mix of doctor and patient and speed dating methodology.

Effective scale up and sustainability of AA will require an enhanced level of institutionalisation. Various encouraging examples already exist at regional, national and local levels. At regional level, in particular, various roadmaps and frameworks have been/are being agreed to scale up AA. What are the key priorities for regional-level collaboration in support of more efficient AA to member states? And what are priorities from a national risk and emergency management service perspective? What support may regional and national organisations be looking for when operationalising common AA objectives in their regions or countries?
This session aims to present ongoing work, lessons learned, and existing challenges on scaling-up and support the institutionalisation of AA through leadership of regional and national organisations. 
Experiences from Africa, Asia and Latin America will be shared, in collaboration with representatives of regional and national organisations.

Speakers:
- Sandra Kemeh, Disaster Operations Expert - The African Multi-
- Hazard Early Warning and Early Action Systems (AMHEWAS) Situation
- Room - African Union (AU)
- Lawrence Dimailig, Assistant Director for Disaster Monitoring & Analysis - ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management
- Andres Viteri, Government of Ecuador

Different digital tools and systems can support anticipatory action. These tools can range from basic to advanced decision support systems that couple multiple underlying models and tools. The usability and adoption of these tools differ, where a certain level of digital maturity is also often required. Humanitarian and governmental organizations usually adopt these tools gradually, moving from piloting to fully operationalizing anticipatory action. Some of the tools have a global to local strategic product development approach, where several of the components of the tools can be replicated across countries, with a specific adaptation to the local context. Other tools are entirely locally developed and owned. Tools can focus on communication and dissemination, decision-making, or operational support in relation to anticipatory action. In some cases, tools can support combinations of these three objectives. This session will focus on examining how in the value chain of early warning early action, each of these tools can contribute and who the potential end users are. Participants will get a better understanding and overview of existing tools and will also be given the opportunity to get a hands-on demonstration. Challenges and opportunities in adopting these tools and systems operationally will be discussed, and participants can contribute with their experiences. Together, potential gaps and overlaps between these tools and systems will be explored. In the end, the session hopes to contribute to opening up a path for scaling up anticipatory action more efficiently and effectively using digital support tools. 

Speakers:
- Jurg Wilbrink, IFRC, Risk Watch and Alert Hub
- Martijn Kwant, Deltares, Combining tools for flood impact-based forecasting
- Zineb Bhaby Buhler, iMMAP Inc and IMMAP France, iMMAPs strategy around digital products
- Bouke Pieter Ottow, 510, Impact-based forecasting platform for different hazards and countries
- Anil Pokhrel/National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Authority, Development of an impact-based forecasting module within the BIPAD portal TBC
- Francesca Giovinazzo, ACAPS Team Leader - CrisisInSight Team 

During the 10th Global Platform Humanitarian Dialogue on Anticipatory Humanitarian Action, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) are pleased to present a set of standard displacement-related metrics and indicators which will strengthen the ability of DRR actors to integrate displacement within their work including supporting states capacity to enhance reporting against Sendai Framework targets. The presentation will take place in hybrid format on Wednesday, 07 December between 1800-1830. An MS Teams link is available for those participants who will not be able to join in person. A brief Q&A session will follow the presentation.

Displacement, whether short and long-term, short and long-distance, managed or spontaneous, is a key impact of hazards, often acting as a multiplier of their impacts and a source of further vulnerability. It is therefore the focus of an increasing number of disaster-related policy and operational efforts at national and regional levels, as well as mentioned in the objectives outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. However, no displacement-related metric is currently included among the indicators that countries use to monitor progress against the risk reduction objectives of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Speakers:
- Nicholas Bishop, DRR Officer, IOM
- Sylvain Ponserre, Data and Risk Analysis Manager, IDMC
- Lorenzo GUADAGNO, PAMAD Programme Manager, Platform for Disaster Displacement

There is a clear need for research evidence to drive policymaking and emergency responses so that lives are not lost, and resources are not wasted. To improve the use of research evidence in policy and practice, it is important to provide corresponding products tailored to the target audience, such as rapid evidence summaries. This event will showcase the Canadian Red Cross efforts to implement a research evidence summary template use in practice to answer pressing questions informed evidence summary template.

Speakers:
- Dr. Ahmad Firas Khalid, Canadian Red Cross
- Helga Wolf-Billard, Canadian Red Cross
- Jen Olsen, Canadian Red Cross
- Dr. Ayham Alomari, Canadian Red Cross
- Dr. Faiza Rab, Canadian Red Cross
- Dr. Mohamed Habsah, Canadian Red Cross

Malawi Red Cross Society, in collaboration with Danish Red Cross and other partners, are supporting the digitalization of disaster-prone communities’ contingency plans while building the capacities of community-based disaster responders equipped with mobile phones, to report through a bespoke ODK Collect application, as part of the Action “Increased Disaster Resilience through Early Action in Malawi (IDREAM)” funded by the EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Operations (ECHO).

This initiative bridges the communication gap that is often witnessed between community level and central actors where, in anticipation of a disaster or once it strikes, central actors are unaware of the situation on the ground, and community level actors are not sufficiently informed about where and how their information has been received, and whether they can expect central actors to provide their support to implement early actions or respond to urgent disasters. 

Not only do these e-CPs allow to effectively and timely activate community-based contingency plans, but it also connects the ongoing development of impact forecasting and triggers supported by the Red Cross directly to communities, in order to activate early actions and early warning as soon as trigger thresholds have been met.

This session will include a short introduction to the technical aspects of the e-CPs, followed by a presentation on the community-based work conducted to implement e-CPs as part of the targeted community-based disaster preparedness, and on how trainings are being designed to cater to communities with both high (urban) or low (rural) previous exposure to mobile phones. 

Attendees will also get an opportunity to try the reporting tool in practice and see how it feeds live into datasets, and how it will be visualized through a dashboard for improved coordination.

Speakers:
- Chance Muwama, Forecast-based Action Analyst from Malawi Red Cross Society
- Sanna Nolsoee Djurhuus, Anticipatory Action Officer from Danish Red Cross

Economic turmoil, war, and climate change are unraveling years of development gains and plunging millions more each year into a state of heightened vulnerability and humanitarian crisis.
Predictable disasters should not be treated as surprises. Pre-arranging and releasing financing before disaster strikes can dampen the impact, reduce human and economic costs, and allow people to recover much faster.
In many countries, people, humanitarian agencies, donors, and scientists are lining up local knowledge, risk information and early warning systems to trigger the release of money to intervene ahead of storms, floods, drought, and disease before their most severe impacts happen or are felt.
African Risk Capacity (ARC) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) joined efforts to explore the applicability of anticipatory action within the sovereign insurance approach. In other words, to develop, test, and independently evaluate if instead of paying out following a failed rainy season, ARC insurance could pay out earlier, to allow governments to mitigate rather than just compensate losses.
The event will showcase the solutions developed and offer a space to exchange with others on their experiences and lessons learned integrating AA and DRF to get ahead of predictable shocks.

Speakers:
- Lydia Poole, Associate Director Evidence, Centre for Disaster Protection
- Daniela Cuellar Vargas, Humanitarian Affairs Officer, OCHA
- David Maslo, Head of Business Development, ARC
- Fyawupi Mwafongo, Deputy Director of Response, Government Representative Malawi
- Dr. Makoala V. Marake, Professor University of Lesotho, 4As

What is Missing Maps?
Many places in the world are unmapped, making it very difficult for organizations providing humanitarian aid and sustainable development in these locations to respond effectively. Together with the Missing Maps project, we can come together virtually to help create maps of communities around the world, adding buildings, roads, rivers, etc., ultimately helping to capture up-to-date information that can be used in anticipatory action and ensuring communities can become more aware of risks and more resilient in the process.   

The Missing Maps process consists of three steps: 
- Remote volunteers trace satellite imagery into OpenStreetMap
- Community volunteers add local detail such as neighborhoods, street names, and evacuation centers
- Humanitarian organizations use mapped information to plan risk reduction and disaster response activities that save lives

In this side event, we will focus on the first step and map the required objects. Such social events, in which people come and map together, are also called ‘Mapathons’.

Speakers:
- Melanie Eckle-Elze, Heidelberg Institute for Geoinformation Technology (HeiGIT gGmbH),
- Sam Colchester, Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT)
- Isabell Klipper, German Red Cross

Hydrometeorological hazards cause frequent disasters in Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador. Extreme events related to such risks in the Andean region, between 1985 and 2014, have generated economic losses of more than USD 3 billion, around USD 21 million per event, almost 7 thousand people dead and affecting more than 12 million people. In addition to this, the latest IPCC report projects, with confidence, increases in flooding in the region as a result of an already changing climate.
Anticipatory action is an approach that aims to reduce potential humanitarian impacts of events, such as floods, by acting ahead.
Nevertheless, amidst a deep lack of historical data and complex physical and social contexts, we have to ask ourselves: how much ahead in time can we take action? Which appropriate actions can be taken in localized events?
Reflecting on past disasters can give us elements to tailor current initiatives, based on available and gathered evidence. Future risk scenarios and novel methodologies can inform decision-making in such challenging environments.
It is also necessary to foster exchange between progress and new methodologies being uptaken and further developed, by different stakeholders of national disaster risk management systems, such as Impact based Forecasts and hydrological monitoring, as building blocks for anticipation mechanisms.
This event aims to be a deep dive into the specifics aspects of anticipation in the Andean region, to share and learn, from and to the global dialogue.

Speakers:
- Waldo Lavado, Sub-Director of Hydrologic Studies and Research National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI Peru)
- Michelle Vasquez, Responsible for Disaster risk management
- National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Bolivia (SENAMHI Bolivia) TBC 
- Dina Farfán, Association for the Conservation and Study of the Andean-Amazonian Mountains (Acemaa)
- León Lizón, Anticipatory Action in the Andes project coordinator for Bolivia Practical Action

In response to the intensifying drought in Somalia, IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) unit conducted a projection analysis, aiming to estimate the number of people who may become displaced due to the drought in 2022. This presentation will provide an overview of the drought displacement projections that were developed, covering the end-to-end process of data sourcing, analysis, mapping and visualization. The session will also include an overview of key findings from the projections, and a summary of ongoing stocktaking analysis that monitors forecasts alongside actual drought displacement figures in 2022. It will conclude with an overview of how collecting new and more reliable data in the current drought will strengthen projections and inform future humanitarian planning.

This presentation will provide an overview of the drought displacement projections that were developed, covering the end-to-end process of data sourcing, analysis, mapping and visualization. The session will also include an overview of key findings from the projections and a summary of ongoing stocktaking analysis that monitors forecasts alongside actual drought displacement figures in 2022. It will conclude with an overview of how collecting new and more reliable data in the current drought will strengthen projections and inform future humanitarian planning.

Speakers:
- Tessa Richardson, DTM Programme Manager, IOM
-Anne-Laure, DTM Reporting Officer, IOM Somalia

No-code tools are becoming a growing trend in many sectors that are looking for new ways to collect and analyse data in real time for fast decision making. Experts in Emergency planning, digital transformation and MEAL will discuss their pros and cons and how can impact anticipatory action.
The discussion will be organised around an example of an innovative no-code tool used to conduct a food assistance mapping for Guyane Préfecture and the French Red Cross.

Moderator: Laura De Franchis 

Speakers:
- Arturo García Fernández, Data collection and Ooort Cloud Technology CEO
- Anne Sophie Dupeyras, Project manager 
- Raphael Bonnaud, CEO Relief Applications

One of the strategies towards scaling up of anticipatory action (AA) is the integration into regional and national frameworks, Forecast-based Action (FbA) and Impact-based forecasting (IBF).. ! Through the engagement with stakeholders including government, we have witnessed a growing trend on efforts towards institutionalization of AA in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. In Uganda, the ambitions regarding anticipatory action are aimed at the integration of FbA into District Contingency Plans that will be triggered based on credible forecasts and according to pre-defined actions. While in Ethiopia, the ambition is the development of national (and/or local level) pool funds by local governments that will support anticipatory actions. The development of fund mechanisms could be part of a wider objective to support integration of Anticipatory Actions into national DRM frameworks and disaster management laws.
Further adoption and hosting of the IBF platform by one of the key government agencies will create room to expand the data ecosystem around hazard forecasting, risk and impact data strengthening. At regional level, the collaboration and engagement with IGAD’s (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) ICPAC (IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre), on provision of climate services, development of multi hazard EWS will further strengthen the use of national forecasts that will inform timely early warning and Early / Anticipatory action. In spite of these successes, there have been limitations towards
scale up of anticipatory action.

Humanitarian principles are the ethical basis for humanitarian action and a pillar of the humanitarian worker identity. What humanitarians do in practice stems from the belief that suffering is universal and requires a response: it cannot be met with indifference. “Humanity”, as a matter of principle, dictates we must address suffering when we “see” it. What about when we “foresee” it?
Anticipatory action has opened a range of policy and operational avenues for reducing suffering from predictable shocks. It has also called into question whether -or in what measure- anticipation is the business of humanitarian actors.
In a time of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, money and attention to future risks are vastly more susceptible of getting pushed to the background of domestic priorities and the immediate response to ongoing crises. Yet, to scale up anticipatory action, it is as important we mobilize the moral imagination of humanitarian workers as it is that we harness the political will and financial commitment of developed countries.
This event will zoom into the ethical fabric of the humanitarian sector and the moral superpower its more-than-half-a-million workforce could unlock by adopting an anticipatory mindset.

Speakers:
- Juan Chaves-González, OCHA, 
- Sofia Navarrete Zur, Researcher, TNS-GPIA
- Lindsay Myers, Researcher, TNS-GPIA
- Marla Teixeira, Researcher, TNS-GPIA
- Professor Peter Hoffman, TNS-GPIA

Extreme events require investment from all stakeholders. This interactive session will interrogate the role of partnerships. What roles do academics play in building AA evidence? Does the public sector risk landscape anticipate disasters? What is the effectiveness of humanitarian AA work? We will hear big ideas for using AA systems to build resilience to a changing climate and communicating about unprecedented events.  

Acute food insecurity has reached extremely worrying levels globally. According to the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2022 Mid-Year Update, as many as 205.1 million people will face acute hunger in 45 countries, the highest number ever reported by the GRFC over the last seven years. Global humanitarian needs are at an all-time high and continue to grow. One of the key solutions identified to break this vicious cycle is anticipating predictable disasters and crises and acting ahead of time to protect the most vulnerable people.
Progress and commitments have been made to scale up AA to prevent food crises. Yet, despite AAs being triggered ahead of these crises, the amount of available funds and the scale of assistance provided are often not yet comparable with the intensity and magnitude of disasters. Coordination among key stakeholders has allowed convergence towards common definitions and joint actions, such as the inter-agency AA frameworks facilitated by OCHA in a number of countries. However, for the systems’ shift to become truly anticipatory, collective efforts are needed along the humanitarian-development-peace nexus so that AA is fully mainstreamed within national disaster risk management and climate change adaptation plans, policies and strategies.
To enable this, it is critical that practitioners and decision-makers have a common understanding of: What are principles and criteria of AA in protracted crises contexts? Do we have a common understanding on the use of food security projections in AA? Do we agree on suitable approaches to analyse the impact of AA on food security? Why and how is AA relevant to operationalize the HDP nexus in the face of current food insecurity trends?
This session will share outcomes of a technical workshop to be held in early November - co-organized by FAO and WFP in collaboration with the Global Network against Food Crises - where these topics will be discussed.

Moderator: Jesse Mason, WFP

Speakers: 
- Niccolò Lombardi, FAO
- Matthias Amling, Welthungerhilfe
- Sandra Delali Kemeh, African Union
- Ferdinand von Wehye, German Federal Foreign Office

The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance as a result of climate impacts has rapidly increased in recent years, with expectations of a sharper rise in even the near future. Climate impacts such as droughts, floods, changing rainfall patterns, and more extreme and frequent storms not only create new humanitarian needs but also exacerbate and protract needs. Many of the contexts considered to be most vulnerable and least ready to adapt to climate change also experience conflict or fragility and have had inter-agency humanitarian appeals for at least 10 consecutive years.

The link between climate change, humanitarian needs, and fragility is becoming increasingly acute and has been repeatedly highlighted by affected communities, humanitarian actors, the UN Security Council. The urgent need to support fragile communities in highly climate-affected countries has also been acknowledged in the context of the UNFCCC COP process, notably at COP27. 

This year’s Global Dialogue Platform asks, “What if we invest in protecting people from the impacts of hazards, rather than waiting for the worst to happen?”. Bringing together the experience of different actors in this space (humanitarian, climate, peace and security), this session seeks to identify deliverables for anticipatory humanitarian action that can respond to climate impacts interlaced with fragility, therefore potentially enabling both resilience and conditions for peace. Specific attention will be given to linking last-mile Early Warning Systems (EWS) with anticipatory action. 

The session also aims to build consensus around a limited number of such deliverables
and the coalitions and initiatives to achieve them, in the lead up towards COP28 in November 2023, as well as the UAE’s presidency of the UN Security Council in June 2023.

Speakers:
-Emma Louise Flaherty, Implementation Lead, Risk Informed Early Action Partnership, IFRC
- Kristofer Hamel, Head of Climate Impact Response, UAE Climate Change Special Envoy 
- Maarten van Aalst, Director, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre 

The Anticipation Hub’s EWEA Future Leaders Network was launched this year and is currently in the inception stages of its organization, with significant interest in the group being shown by the Hub partners and beyond. Early career professionals are increasingly being valued in the early warning early action field, and space is open for active participation of this group in decision-making, to shape the EWEA agenda. The value of youth and young professionals in the ideas, energy, commitment, and new perspectives that they bring to the table, as is the simple fact that increasing the diversity of the space in intergenerational, interregional, and intersectoral ways is essential to the future of EWEA. What does this emerging generation of leaders see as the key problems and questions upcoming in the EWEA space? Where is the EWEA headed? How do they propose to shape this?

The title of this event is inspired by the 2020 climate fiction book, Ministry for the Future, in which a UN organization is tasked with anticipating and tackling the most pressing climate change related issues in innovative ways, from economics to politics to culture to technology. The participative session offers to bring diverse voices from across the Future Leader Network who will be suggesting topics for a “Ministry for the Future of EWEA”, offering their expertise and experience for this futuristic vision.

Speakers:
- Dorothy Heinrich, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
- Lydia Cumiskey, University College Cork
- Adele Young, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
- Toke Jeppe Rogbo-Bentsson, Danish Red Cross
- Faith Mitheu, University of Reading

In September this year, Mali Red Cross’ Early Action Protocol was activated as the set trigger level in the Bani River was met. Together with its partners, Mali Red Cross, therefore, implemented early actions in the exposed area to reduce the impact of the upcoming flood. At the same time, in May 2022, FAO launched anticipatory action initiatives for flood risk in Niger and Burkina Faso. The Mali FbA mechanism will be introduced in this session, and the early action taken will be presented. This will happen through a presentation by the Mali Red Cross National FbF Coordinator and through a short video made by a film team during those hectic days of the activation. FAO will present the case study from its Niger activation and the ongoing work to evaluate the action's impact. 
The session will mainly focus on the challenges met during these activations and which lessons can be drawn to improve the mechanisms further. Specific challenges and opportunities related to anticipatory action for flood in the Sahel will be highlighted to provide food for thought and debate during the Q&A session. 

Speakers:
- Souleymane Konate, National FbF coordinator, Mali Red Cross
- Toke J. Rogbo-Bengtsson, Advisor, Anticipatory Action, Danish Red Cross
- Luca Parodi, Regional Specialist for Anticipatory Action, FAO West Africa & Sahel

Worldwide, local actors—government and civil society—are first to respond in crises and, depending on the effectiveness of their response, can save more lives and livelihoods than internationally-led efforts. This recognition lay behind the 2016 Grand Bargain commitment to direct 25% of humanitarian funding to local level actors. The window for anticipatory actions is, by far, too limited to expect effective impacts if they are planned and executed solely by external actors. Indeed, the Grand Bargain is still a mirage with less than 2% of global humanitarian funds going to local organizations and local actors continue to face several challenges. They function primarily as implementing partners, rather than as planners and decision makers as this goes to international, national, or regional levels. In the humanitarian arena their voices and expertise go mostly unnoticed or seemingly taken by their international spokesmen. In the session we will examine different initiatives of local-led processes across countries such as Mozambique, Uganda, Kenya, Philippines, and Mali. This includes AA initiatives that fund community-designed asset creation, or AA initiatives with built-in flexibility for decisions at the local level. Overall, this theme intends to discuss how Anticipatory Actions can be grounded at the local levels and be led, in the long run, by
actively engaged local actors. The session is hybrid and will use the fishbowl format to allow the engagement of online and in-presence participants.

Speakers:
- Luis Artur, Eduardo Mondlane University, Mozambique
- Chris Garimoi Orach, Makerere University, Uganda
- Evan Easton Calabria, Tuft University, US
- Sonia Murshed, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh
- Kim Kristensen, FAO
- Samuel Munyuminy, Institute for ChildrenStudies, Kenya
- Anselmo Feleuane, Diakonia International START network in Philippines TBC

Research shows that the most severe disaster events occur in many of the countries most affected by protracted conflict, while many people displaced by conflict end up in hazard-prone countries and regions. This highlights the pressing need to examine the possibilities, risks, and effectiveness of anticipatory action (AA) in these settings. This session explores AA in and in the aftermath of conflict, exploring not only the challenges and opportunities for AA to be implemented in conflict settings but AA interventions for displaced people after they have fled conflict. This will include a focus on particular considerations for refugees in countries where their rights, such as freedom of movement, are restricted, and how the humanitarian community must adapt AA interventions for these contexts. Further, it will provide insight into a growing but contentious area of anticipatory action: forecasting conflict itself with the aim of providing assistance to minimise the harms it brings. Through case studies from Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, with Rohingya refugees; IDPs in South Sudan, and other examples from around the world, the session aims to bring both practical issues and opportunities and important ethical considerations to light. The format will be interactive and discussion-based, with an emphasis on identifying and drawing on the expertise of participants as well as speakers.

Speakers: 
- Catalina Jaime, Climate Centre
- Krystell Santamaria, IFRC
- Luca Parodi, FAO
- Alexander Kjaerum, DRC
- Catherine Tranberg Harsaker, Norwegian Red Cross

Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) is knowledge orally passed on in communities from generation to generation and learned through observing the environment. This session will include a discussion on the IKS findings from our work in Zimbabwe, Colombia, and other countries, reflections on why IKS is key in predicting seasonal forecasts and suggestions on how to integrate IKS within the AA approach. 

Speakers:
- Tasiana Mzozo, Climate Services Expert, WFP
- Marion Khamis, Emergencies and Resilience Programme Coordinator for LAC, FAO
- Dominic Nyirongo, AA coordinator Zimbabwe CO, WFP
- Design Chimwaradze, Justice and Peace Programme Officer, CAFOD
- James Ngoma, Meteorological Services Department (MSD) Zimbabwe 

Based on current forecasting capacity, there are usually only a few hours to a few days to take anticipatory action ahead of tropical storms; often with high uncertainty about where the storm will hit until shortly before, leaving a small window for anticipatory action. 
Recent events highlighted this challenge: When super typhoon Noru hit the Philippines, existing anticipatory action plans could not be implemented. The storm had only intensified into a super typhoon in the 9 hours before landfall. At the time trigger decisions had to be taken, this intensity had not been forecasted at all, Noru had not even reached typhoon level yet. The anticipatory action community had experienced very similar challenges with typhoons Goni and Odette in 2020 and 2021. Experts say rapidly developing typhoons are set to become much more common with impacts of climate change, and it will become more difficult to predict which storms will intensify and where they will land. 
This poses significant problems for anticipatory action programmes that depend on a certain lead time to implement actions that add value to existing preparedness measures. It also makes integration of – and a smooth transition between – preparedness, anticipatory action and rapid response stages particularly important. 
This session will discuss the particular challenges of forecasting and acting in anticipation of storms, and highlight links between anticipatory action and rapid response in the Caribbean and in Asia and the Pacific. 

Speakers:
- Greta Aubke, WFP
- Eliza T. Ventilacion, Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability, Learning, and Information Management Unit Head, Disaster Management Services, Philippine Red Cross  
- Catherine Jones, Anticipatory Action Lead for Asia-Pacific, FAO
- Hannah Nissan, Associate Director, WTW 
- Gerry Bagtasa, Associate Professor, University of the Philippines’ Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology 

How can we make Anticipatory Action localized? How can we really coordinate and streamline our EAP developments? How can we integrate communities in locally-led Anticipatory Action? And what about scale?
We’ll present how we NGOs and civil society organizations developed an approach to community-based EAPs, locally led AA and how we even implemented this successfully. 
The speakers will trace their streamlined community-based EAP development process as a best practice for a localized approach, inter-organizational collaboration efforts and NGO synergies. 
They will critically reflect on the role of local NGOs in the Anticipatory Action community as a third pillar of the anticipatory humanitarian system, their bottom-up approach for community-led EAP implementation and the unused potential for scale.
The civil society is faced with a lot of challenges: entry barriers around financing and structures not catering for civil society, preventing civil society from participating in Anticipatory Action more widely in an institutionalized manner.
Together with the audience, this session will find answers to these challenges posed to civil society to participate in Anticipatory Action, discuss how to make the Anticipatory Action community more inclusive, and walk the talk to increased localisation.

Moderator: Anastancia Mangisi, Head of Project Forecast-based Action Zimbabwe, Welthungerhilfe Zimbabwe

Speakers:
- Njabulo Ndlovu, Forecast-based Action Focal Person, Caritas Bulawayo
- Felix Gossrau, Food Security & Livelihoods Head of Department, Action Against Hunger, Zimbabwe
- Miharintsoa Radanielina, Head of Project Forecast-based Action Madagascar, Welthungerhilfe Madagascar

The Anticipation Hub’s Working Group on Earth Observations for Anticipatory Action brings together diverse partners and practitioners to share their approaches to anticipatory action, to identify new opportunities for exploring Earth observations in the context of early action, and to create opportunities to pilot these activities. It is a goal of the working group that all activities are anchored to developing solutions for real-world challenges. The activities of this Working Group are ambitious and require partners, ideas, and energy from across multiple sectors - not just Earth observations and humanitarian action - but also those who are interested in shifting focus from disaster response to anticipatory action and reducing the detrimental impacts on lives and livelihoods. This event will discuss the year in review of the Earth Observation for Anticipatory Action working group (EO4WG) determine the path forward for 2023, including interests in expanding to different types of data, artificial intelligence / machine learning. Non-members are welcome.

Speakers: 
- Dr. Shanna McClain, Manager, Disasters Program, NASA
- Veronica Bell, Head of International Technical Services, Australian Red Cross
- Karen Dall, Manager, Capacity Strengthening, German Red Crosss
- Dr. Monique M. Kuglitsch, Chair of ITU/WMO/UNEP FG-AI4NDM (Artificial Intelligence for Natural Disaster Management)