7th - 9th
December 2021
Global Dialogue Platform

A mix of high-level panel discussions, smaller thematic presentations and interactive sessions will give you the opportunity to learn more about anticipatory action, including its opportunities and challenges, and to enquire about specific regions and topics that interest you personally. 

Virtual Edition

Introduction to the parallel sessions

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Moderators of the day:
- Urbe Secades (WFP)
- Nora Guerten (FAO)
- Matthias Amling (German FFO)
Parallel sessions

"So you want me to do what because some computer model predicts what?" - challenges and good practices in youth and community engagement and accountability in AA

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Join us for an honest and interactive discussion on ‘what can go wrong’ and ‘what we can improve’ to be accountable to communities and engage all community members - from young people to the most vulnerable - throughout all stages of AA processes.

The session will start with an interactive ‘what can go wrong’ story telling approach on the risk of ignoring the importance of community engagement and accountability (CEA) in anticipatory action. We will then share examples on key entry points and good practices for CEA along the process of anticipatory action - from assessment and design of Early Action protocols, to the activation of EAPs and supporting communities to act early, to utilizing feedback mechanisms for learning and improving. Specifically, we will look at the question of how young people are currently part of the processes and how they could improve the design process. We will have practitioners give their honest reflections and afterwards we take some time to collect our thoughts on how to improve our ways of working and agree on an action plan. 

- Sanne Hogesteeger, Climate Centre, Programme Coordinator
- Amy Crisp, British Red Cross, Regional Community Engagement & Accountability Adviser
- Karen Dall, German Red Cross, Capacity Strengthening Manager for FbF
- Caroline Zastiral, British Red Cross, Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Action Advisor

Reimaging Anticipatory Action – closing the science and technology gap

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Join the IFRC and Bangladesh Red Crescent as we explore the latest trends in technology and innovation and aim to think of new and creative ways to predict crises! 

Technological advancements and innovation are creating new opportunities for enhancing government and partners to act earlier and wiser. Efforts are striving to close the science and technology gap to ensure the latest innovations can benefit those who need it the most. This session will focus on latest technological advancements and innovation, including digital flood forecasting in Bangladesh and increasing women’s access to information and communication technology in South Asia

Dr. Antony Gnanamuthu, IFRC, Operation Manager – South Asia / CCD

- Dr. Antony Gnanamuthu, IFRC, Operation Manager – South Asia / CCD
- Md. Shahjahan, Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, FbF Project Coordinator
- Mr. Md Arifuzzaman Bhuyan, Bangladesh Water Development Board, Executive Engineer
- Karin Metz, IFRC, IFRC Alert Hub Project Management Consultant
- Moriah Royz, Google, Product Manager

Human Centered Design to inform Anticipatory Action

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We’re discussing Anticipatory Action based on real needs and insights.

In this session, we will look at how Human Centered Design can be used as an approach to collect, process and visualise real-life insights from organisational stakeholders and community members about their experience coping with natural disasters such as drought. We will use a small-panel format to present and discuss the co-design methodology and training the 510 Data Team (Netherlands Red Cross) did together with the Lesotho and Namibia Red Cross, as well as the insights that were collected in various co-design sessions across multiple countries.

- Jonath Lijftogt, Netherlands Red Cross 510, Digital Community Engagement & Accountability Expert
- Sebongile Hlubi, Lesotho Red Cross, Forecast Based Financing Project Manager

- Jonath Lijftogt, Netherlands Red Cross 510, Digital Community Engagement & Accountability Expert
- Orla Canavan, Netherlands Red Cross 510, Strategic Product Design Lead
- Sebongile Hlubi, Lesotho Red Cross, Forecast Based Financing Project Manager

Anticipation in urban areas

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AntiCITYpation - We did it and will do it even better in the future!

Urban areas bring a need for high granularity in developing Forecast-based Actions. At the same time, the quality and resources in cities are given to satisfy this need.
This session will feature three successful examples from Asia and will open the conversation to innovative ideas of planning urban anticipation projects.

  • Thomas Smarczyk, GRC, coordinator pilot projects urban
  • Eddie W. Jjemba, RCCC, Urban Resilience Advisor

- María Huerta Urías, SIA Desarollo, Consultant
- Dr. Natasha Aruri, TU Berlin, Post-doctoral Researcher
- Shavkat Abdujabarov, German Red Cross, Regional Project Coordinator
- Khairul Sheikh, German Red Cross, FbF Project Delegate
- Elena Suero, German Red Cross, FbF Project Delegate

Getting it right from the get-go

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A candid conversation on sustainable and inclusive AA financing.

Integrating AA in governmental disaster risk management (DRM) plans, including allocation of national DRM funds for AA, and accessibility of those funds for the people in need is crucial for efficient autonomous disaster response in the long term. In this session we will present lessons learnt from AA financing mechanisms, challenges for women in accessing funding and dissect the factors that can help national and local government in developing and implementing inclusive AA. Representatives from government, practitioners and experts from Bangladesh and the Philippines will discuss those topics in a fishbowl format. The audience can submit their questions via chat box to the experts.

- Arvin Caro, Start Network, DRF Coordinator (Philippines)
- Katrin von der Dellen, CARE Deutschland, e.V., Desk Officer South East Asia

- Sumaiya Kabir, CARE International in Bangladesh Consortium Coordinator
- Maria Rosario Felizco, Oxfam Philippines, Country Director
- Susan Njambi-Szlapka, Start Network, Learning Adviser
- Amadou Diallo, DRF Regional Coordinator, Start Network
Parallel Sessions

Earth Observations for Anticipatory Action: strategic opportunities across the anticipation lifecycle

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Come learn and build opportunities for enhanced data integration across the anticipatory action programming cycle!

The Anticipation Hub’s Earth Observations for Anticipatory Action Working Group has been conducting a humanitarian and earth observation sector assessment to identify the existing needs, additional hazards, and potential EO support that can be provided across the planning and implementation of anticipatory action programming. This session will inform the Global Dialogue Platform community of the many opportunities available for improved integration of EO and highlight a number of examples from the Joint Research Center and Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Following the presentation, participants will be asked to discuss and explore the findings to strengthen opportunities for integrating EO into anticipatory action. 

Shanna McClain, NASA, Manager, Global Partnerships, Risk Reduction & Resilience Advisor

- Veronica Bell, Australian Red Cross
- Karen Dall, German Red Cross, Capacity Strengthening Manager in FbF
- Charlie Huyck, ImageCat, Inc., Executive Vice President
- Vera Thiemig, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Project Officer
- Emanuele Sapino, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, GIS consultant for Copernicus Emergency Mapping Risk and Recovery Service
- Jesus San Miguel, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Senior Researcher

Integrating Child Protection and Gender-Based Violence Outcomes in Anticipatory Action

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Addressing women and children's protection rights in anticipatory action from the perspective of women-led and community driven processes.

Disasters are not gender neutral. Women and children are often disproportionately affected and face increased risks of violence, neglect and exploitation, both as direct and indirect consequences of emergencies. While there is progress of gender transformation and integration protection measures for women and children in anticipatory actions, these have not yet been fully considered as non-negotiable interventions. This session will examine the current state of anticipatory action and Gender Based Violence (GBV) and Child Protection and will share three case studies that examine the importance of gender and protection integration in Anticipatory Action. A case study from Bangladesh will highlight the important role of women led organizations (WLOS) in Anticipatory Action.

- Chiara Ambrosino, Plan International UK, Climate, Environment & Resilience Advisor
- Caroline Haar, UNFPA, GBViE Specialist (Anticipatory Action)
- Audrey Oettli, IFRC, Child Protection Coordinator
- Eiko Narita, UNFPA Bangladesh Representative
- Maria Marvi S. Ogrimen-Bantang, PLAN International – Philippines, Community Development Facilitator 

How to organize anticipatory action simulations: lessons learned and good practices from Nepal and Mali

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Discover how Nepal Red Cross Society and the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent organized their anticipatory action simulations in Nepal and Mali - including the use of the local social protection system in Nepal.

In this session, the teams involved in the implementation of the "Forecast-based Action and Shock Responsive Social Protection in Nepal" project, funded by the EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, and the FbA by the DREF early action protocol, will share the process they followed to organise flood anticipatory action simulation exercises: in two river basins of Nepal in Sept. 2021 and in the Niger river basin in Aug. 2021, and the lessons learned and good practices they drew from these experiences. They will discuss how they planned and organised the exercises: one 2-day field simulation in Nepal and one 3-hour virtual desktop simulation in Mali, but also how the conduction of such exercises benefits the development and efficient implementation of anticipatory action.

Manish Dhungel, Danish Red Cross, Program Coordinator

- Niru Pradhan, Nepal Red Cross Society, Program Coordinator
- Hemanta Dangal, Danish Red Cross, Senior Social Protection Officer
- Melanie Ogle, IFRC, FbF Capacity Strengthening Senior Officer

Vulnerability assessment and anticipatory action: current practice and options for common approaches

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Assessing dimensions of vulnerability for effective Anticipatory Action.

Vulnerability information combined with impact-based forecasts are key to triggering anticipatory actions (AAs) and inform decisions on if, how, and where to act. However, ability to assess vulnerability to support triggering and targeting in AA is made complex by different definitions and conceptual framework, as well as weaknesses in available socio-economic databases. Effective implementation of AAs requires innovative approaches towards vulnerability assessments (timing and frequency), beneficiary selection, common targeting, improved data and better information sharing mechanisms is necessary. This session aims to showcase successes and lessons learnt by FAO (Integrated Phase Classification Acute Food Insecurity Classification (IPC-AFI), Data in emergencies) and Oxfam Novib and its partners (B-READY project) in using vulnerability data/information to inform AA.

Gabriela Luz, Oxfam - B-READY Global Communications and Knowledge Management Specialist

- Josselin Gauny, FAO, Emergency and Rehabilitation Officer
- Neil Marsland, FAO, Senior Technical Officer, Office of Emergencies and Resilience
- Quraishia Merzouk, FAO, Early Warning- Anticipatory Action Specialist
- Esteban (bong) Masagca, People’s Disaster Risk Reduction Network, Inc. (PDRRN), Executive Director
- Junver Arcayna, Oxfam (Philippines), Financial Inclusion Manager
- Joshua Ngaina, FAO, Anticipatory Action Agro-Meteorologist         

The more local, the better!

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Locally-led, community-informed approach: the new frontier of DRF.

The current humanitarian system based on response and top-down approach is no longer fit for purpose. In-country actors, alongside local communities should sit in the driving seat and develop a holistic risk management approach suitable for their own country. The Start Network Building Block framework is a tool for local stakeholders to build a locally driven Disaster Risk Finance System reflecting on risk layering and timing of intervention. We will showcase where the framework has been already applied (Pakistan) and highlight other contexts (Somalia) where it will be used to support locally-led early action interventions driven by in-country actors; we will share experience and learning with the purpose to demonstrate the need for a community-oriented system focused on protecting people.    

Anna Farina, Start Network, Crisis Anticipation and Disaster Risk Finance Operations Lead

- Eleanor Nderitu, Start Network, Crisis Anticipation and Disaster Risk Finance Country Support Manager
- Aydrus Daar, Nexus Platfrom Somalia
- Amjad Ahmad, Start Network, DRF Coordinator
- Mazen Husseiny, Start Network,Crisis Anticipation and Disaster Risk Finance Country capacity building Advisor

Interactive Session: The Anticipatory Action Challenge: A collaborative treasure hunt

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Find clues and collaborate to solve the Anticipatory Action Challenge in! You have an important mission to complete: solve three challenges to reveal ancient wisdom! You can explore, connect and collaborate during the treasure hunt. Come on time so you do not miss the starting briefing.

Bettina Koelle, RCRC Climate Centre
Nina Conrad, RCRC Climate Centre
Lydia Cumiskey, Anticipation Hub
Raymond Zingg, IFRC/ Anticipation Hub

Interactive Break in

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What are you in the mood for: Relaxation on the rooftop or interaction at the virtual bar?

Option A: Interact with participants at the virtual bar to share your anticipatory action treasures.

Option B: Join a facilitated breathing, stretching and meditation exercise in our GatherTown relaxation rooftop space to unwind before the next session.


Igniting Partnerships between National Meteorological Services and Humanitarian Actors: Launch of the WMO Guidelines on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Service

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Professor Celeste Saulo
First Vice-President of WMO
Director of the Argentinean National Meteorological Service (SMN)
Full professor at the University of Buenos Aires
Research scientist at the Argentinean National Council for Scientific and Technical Research


What do you need from us? An open discussion between local NGOs and Anticipatory Action (AA) agencies on how we can better work together to scale locally-led AA

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We’ll hear from local NGOs and Anticipatory Action (AA) agencies regarding the barriers and opportunities they each face to enable locally-led AA. 

This discussion will bring together representatives from local NGOs and Anticipatory Action (AA) agencies to discuss the barriers and opportunities they currently face when seeking to implement locally-led AA at a broader scale. The session will include tangible recommendations for all actors in order to move this work forward. 

- Sarah Klassen, Start Network,Policy and Advocacy Advisor
- Emeline Siale Ilolahia, Executive Director of PIANGO
- Amadou Diallo, DRF Regional Coordinator, Start Network
- Muhammad Amad, Executive Director of Initiative for Development and Empowerment Axis (IDEA)
- Tsitsi Magadza, FAO, Anticipatory Action Coordinator, Zimbabwe

Welcoming the experiences and perspectives of new actors in Anticipatory Action

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Join us in welcoming actors who are new to Anticipatory Action to share their perspectives on AA and visions for the future.

The Anticipatory Action (AA) community has seen an increase in both the funding available to scale up anticipatory action, as well as the number of stakeholders collaborating across the climate, humanitarian and development sectors to prevent and mitigate potential disaster impacts before shocks occur. This session invites actors who are new to anticipatory action, including government donors and private enterprises, to share their perspectives on AA and visions for the future, and connect with seasoned practitioners to discuss ways for AA to meet the challenges of the future. 

- Ralf Südhoff, Centre for Humanitarian Action, Director
- Dane Mcqueen, Development and Humanitarian Affairs / United Nations at UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Senior Advisor
- Joseph Insitful, Green Climate Fund, Senior Climate Information and Early Warning Systems Specialist
- Mike Weickert, Director of preparedness and field readiness, World Vision
- Alexander Diaz, Head of Crisis Response and Humanitarian Aid, Google
- Laura Swift, Save the Children, Senior Food Security and Livelihoods Technical Advisor
- Monica Rull, Médecins Sans Frontières, Medical Director 

Interactive Plenary Session: Our global anticipatory action community: what’s next?

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A sneak peak into 2022 for the global anticipatory action community.

Join this interactive session to reflect on the journey of the Anticipation Hub and priorities going forward to strengthen the global anticipatory action community. Participants will then be transported into the future to play the Headlines game to develop a shared vision for our anticipatory action community in 2022 and beyond.

Irene Amuron, RCRC Climate Center, Anticipation Hub
Kara Siahaan, GRC, Head of the Anticipation Hub

Parallel Sessions

Scaling up: a study of policy-related enablers for Early Action in 10 countries

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Join REAP for discussions on taking Early Action to scale in 10 countries based on recent case study findings.

During 2021, the REAP Mapping Working Group commissioned 10 case studies to explore what national, regional and global legislative frameworks, initiatives and financing and delivery mechanisms are enablers and potential entry points to take early action to scale in ten countries: Philippines, Nepal, Niger, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Ethiopia, Jamaica, Fiji and Guatemala. This session will present the main recommendations of this paper and will facilitate a dialogue with partners around the role of REAP in supporting EA scale-up and next priority actions in those countries.

- Montserrat Barroso, WFP, REAP 3W Working group facilitator
- Emma Flaherty, REAP, Implementation Lead

- Toni Jokinen, Finnish Red Cross, Head of International Progranmmes
- Quraishia Merzouk, FAO Southern Africa

Accelerating Anticipatory Action in the MENA region

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Join us to discuss key entry points for donors and humanitarian agencies to accelerate AA in the MENA region.

This session will highlight WFP’s plan to accelerate Anticipatory Action in the MENA region, based on multi-country baseline studies and some examples of AA interventions from other agencies in the region. WFP’s multi-year plan is based on the needs identified by a regional study carried out in collaboration with ODI, an ongoing strategic review of the organization, and potential partnerships opportunities. During the session, key findings from the regional study will be shared, complemented by examples from the field where AA has been implemented. One objective is to disseminate information about evidence, readiness and implementation of forecast based actions, anticipatory actions and other groundwork happening in the region. The second is to invite collaboration, leverage resources and join hands in advocating for AA at the local, national and regional level. 

- Oscar Ekdahl, WFP, Head of Resilience and Climate Change, MENA Region

- Lena Weingärtner, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), Research Associate Global Risks and Resilience
- Maria Selin, Embassy of Sweden in Amman, Counsellor, Head of Regional Development Cooperation MENA
- Asmaa Farooq, Action Against Hunger, WASH Head of Department, Iraq
- Pierre Marie Goimard, Action Against Hunger, WASH Regional Technical Advisor, Iraq
- Hagar Salama, WFP, MENA Programme Assistant, Resilience and Climate Change Unit

Generating evidence on anticipatory action: how to do it (differently?)

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 Learn from experience generating evidence so that you can get it (somewhat) right the first time.

There is widespread agreement that more evidence is needed for anticipatory action, but there is less discussion of the challenges in managing quality studies, particularly when resources are limited, sample sizes are small, and the magnitude of impacts is unknown. Nevertheless, there has been some success in measuring the impact of anticipatory action. In this session, we will briefly share methods and lessons from recent evaluations, including efforts to measure AA impacts on food security and nutrition (e.g. which indicators, time frames, counterfactuals etc.) and to measure shelter and health impacts in Mozambique. We will also introduce at least one "lean" approach to assessing the effectiveness of anticipatory action: one that requires less technical capacity and fewer resources than quasi-experimental studies.

Facilitators and Speakers:
- Clemens Gros, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Senior Technical Adviser for M&E
- Arielle Tozier de la Poterie, German Red Cross, Global Early Action and Research Advisor
- Niccolò Lombardi, Team Leader Anticipatory Action, FAO
- Anna Lena Huhn, Regional Forecast-based Financing Advisor, Southern Africa

Anticipating the humanitarian impacts of la Niña

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“Extreme El Niño and La Niña events may increase in frequency from about one every 20 years to one every 10 years by the end of the 21st century” (SPECIAL REPORT: SPECIAL REPORT ON THE OCEAN AND CRYOSPHERE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE, Chapter 6).

In September 2021, global climate models indicated an increased chance of a La Niña event developing towards the end of the year. As a result, the Inter-Agency Steering Committee El Niño Southern Oscillation Standards Operating procedures (ENSO SOPs) were triggered and a global analysis cell activated to identify countries most at-risk and provide guidance for coordinated Anticipatory Action at global, regional and country level. This session aims to present the findings of the analysis, an overview of the ENSO Cell briefing process and the ongoing preparedness and anticipatory action activities in some of the affected regions. Discussion will also revolve around the potential avenues that exist to better link early warning of ENSO events to rapid and flexible AA funding mechanisms.

Hicham Assabir, Early Warning Early Action Specialist, FAO

- Alvaro Pimpao Silva, WMO, Geographer - Climatologist
- Richard Ewbank, Christian Aid, Global Climate Advisor
- Wilfran Moufouma Okia, World Meteorological Organization, Head, regional climate prediction division
- Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Senior Researcher, Columbia University-IRI and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
- Brenda Lazarus, FAO, Economist

Juntos mejor - Alianzas intersectoriales e institucionalización como catalizadores para la acción anticipatoria en América Latina y el Caribe

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Un intercambio sobre el papel de las alianzas y la institucionalización para asegurar la sostenibilidad y escalabilidad de la acción anticipatoria desde la perspectiva de ALC.

En esta sesión podremos conocer diversas experiencias y buenas prácticas de institucionalización y alianzas para la acción anticipatoria en la región de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC). El 26% del impacto de los desastres es absorbido por la agricultura, el 83% en el caso de la sequía. El 80% de las personas que viven en la pobreza y la inseguridad alimentaria tienen la agricultura como su principal forma de vida. Se ha demostrado ampliamente la relevancia de la acción anticipatoria para la seguridad alimentaria y los medios de vida basados en la agricultura. La institucionalización y las alianzas ofrecen una oportunidad para promover acciones anticipatorias oportunas, escalables, flexibles, multirriesgos y multisectoriales a través de diferentes formas.

Anna Ricoy, FAO RLC, Disaster Risk Management Officer

- Mathieu Destrooper, IFRC, International Delegate
- Edgar Mayeregger, Ministry of Agriculture of Paraguay, Coordinator of Risk Management Unit
- Gustavo Garcia, FAO Guatemala, National Director in Anticipatory Action
- Shelley Cheatham, OCHA, Head of Office (ROLAC)

Closing Statements

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- Gernot Laganda, WFP, Director Climate and Disaster Risk Reduction Programmes
- Dominique Burgeon, FAO, Director, Liaison Office with the UN in Geneva
- Alexandra Rüth, GRC, Head of team Knowledge and Innovation
- Regie Gibson, poet, songwriter, author, workshop facilitator and educator


Closing Party: Sounds from Around the World

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Join us for some for some fun performances as we celebrate the learning and connection we experienced at the Global Dialogue Platform and share our hopes for anticipatory action as we look towards the future.